474
FXUS62 KTBW 051826
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
226 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Weak upper ridging extends northward along the eastern seaboard,
while surface high pressure north of the Bahamas ridges west over
Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. This is keeping a predominant
easterly flow over the region today. Latest HRRR guidance has
showers and storms developing over the interior later this
afternoon/evening with the highest coverage over Polk and Highlands
Counties with the west and east coast sea breeze collisions.

By Thursday morning, the upper ridging and surface high move
southeastward while a weak frontal boundary and upper troughing
moves through the southeast U.S. This will bring a shift in the
winds to the south during the morning and then westerly by the
afternoon hours. This boundary will stall out north of the area
through the end of the week, while weak high pressure ridges over
south Florida. PWAT values will fluctuate between 1.5 - 1.7 inches
through the end of the week, which will support scattered showers
and isolated storms.

The boundary pushes south and east of the area by Saturday allowing
for weak high pressure to build in over the eastern gulf. This will
keep predominant westerly winds over the area and will also usher in
some slightly drier air with PWAT values dipping to around 1.1 - 1.4
inches over the weekend. This will limit shower and storm activity
on Saturday and Sunday.

The ridge will lift slightly northward by the start of next week,
putting Florida under a south-southwesterly wind flow. This will
equate to higher PWAT values in the 1.6 - 2.0 inches range. This
increasing moisture will bring more widespread showers and storms
for the first half of next week. Daytime highs will top out in the
low to mid 90`s each day with overnight lows in the 70`s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. I don`t believe SHRA
and TSRA will be widespread today, but can`t rule out a storm or
two, so will cover this with VCTS at LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW later this
evening. Onshore winds around 5-10 knots expected this afternoon,
then becoming light and variable once again overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High pressure north of the Bahamas is expected to start shifting
southeast later today into tonight. Predominant easterly winds
become onshore with the afternoon sea breeze. Showers and storms
should develop over the land this afternoon/evening, drifting into
the Gulf during the late evening and early overnight hours. A weak
frontal boundary approaches the Gulf waters on Thursday and Friday,
which will shift winds to the west through the end of the week. As a
result, showers could develop along the coast early and push inland
during the afternoon. Winds will remain less than 15 knots and seas
2 feet or less through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High pressure begins to gradually move southeast today as a weak
boundary approaches the area on Thursday and Friday. Scattered
showers and isolated storms possible through the end of the week.
The boundary moves southeast of the area by Saturday allowing for
high pressure to build into the area, which will usher in some
slightly drier air over the weekend. Some critical RH values below
35 percent will be possible on Saturday and Sunday afternoon, but
winds are expected to be light so no Red Flag Warning should be
needed. Moisture rebounds by next Monday as a more southerly wind
flow sets up over the region. Higher rain chances also expected for
the first half of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  79  91 /  10  50  30  50
FMY  77  95  77  93 /  20  60  20  50
GIF  75  98  75  96 /  30  60  20  60
SRQ  78  93  78  92 /  10  50  20  40
BKV  71  95  72  93 /  20  40  20  50
SPG  82  92  81  90 /  10  40  30  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery