447
FXXX10 KWNP 130031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 13-Jun 15 2024 is 1.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 13-Jun 15 2024

             Jun 13       Jun 14       Jun 15
00-03UT       1.33         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       1.33         1.67         1.33
06-09UT       1.33         1.33         1.33
09-12UT       1.33         1.67         1.33
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         1.67
15-18UT       1.67         1.33         1.33
18-21UT       1.67         1.33         1.67
21-00UT       1.67         1.33         1.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 13-Jun 15 2024

              Jun 13  Jun 14  Jun 15
S1 or greater   75%     10%      1%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to reached S1
(Minor) solar radiation levels on 13 Jun. Levels should begin to tapper
off by 14 Jun, and eventually return to near background levels by 15
Jun.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 12 2024 2246 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 13-Jun 15 2024

              Jun 13        Jun 14        Jun 15
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for isolated moderate activity (R1/Minor
Radio Blackouts) through 15 Jun.