951
FXXX10 KWNP 211231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 21-Jun 23 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 21-Jun 23 2024

             Jun 21       Jun 22       Jun 23
00-03UT       1.67         4.00         2.67
03-06UT       1.67         3.33         2.00
06-09UT       1.67         2.33         2.33
09-12UT       0.67         2.33         2.67
12-15UT       2.33         2.00         2.33
15-18UT       3.00         2.00         2.33
18-21UT       3.33         2.33         2.33
21-00UT       3.33         2.67         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 21-Jun 23 2024

              Jun 21  Jun 22  Jun 23
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over 21-23 Jun.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 20 2024 2316 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 21-Jun 23 2024

              Jun 21        Jun 22        Jun 23
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 21-23 Jun.