Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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065 FXUS63 KTOP 032325 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 625 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hit or miss thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon into early evening. Severe chances look low, but there could be hail or gusty winds with stronger storms. - Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday late afternoon into evening with large hail and damaging wind as the main hazards. - Dry weather returns mid-week, then low chances of mainly nighttime storms arrive into this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Convectively induced vort max and MCV have been slowly moving across the area throughout the day. A broader view of the upper air pattern depicts the next trough over the Intermountain West, which will set the stage for tomorrow`s weather. In the meantime, some breaks in the cloud cover have allowed for some destabilization at the surface, and CAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg will keep thunderstorm chances around with the MCV into the early evening hours. The HRRR has been the only one of the CAMs that has captured the ongoing convection in central portions of the CWA, although even that has been inconsistent with the evolution of any further convection through the afternoon and evening. With time, lift should be best in eastern portions of the area as the MCV continues to progress, but instability also decreases slightly as you go east. Have kept low chances (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms mainly into this evening, then decreasing in coverage overnight into early Tuesday. For Tuesday, the aforementioned upper trough is progged to move across the northern Plains while pushing a cold front across the region. Most short-term guidance has this boundary starting to move into north central KS counties in the late afternoon hours with convergence helping to develop convection shortly thereafter (around 23Z). However, some guidance is later with a broken line of thunderstorms, closer to 01Z. Northeastern KS counties remain closer to the best upper support, where thunderstorms would have the best chance of sustaining themselves. Increasing dew points into the afternoon should allow for plenty of instability with 2000-3000 J/kg, and deep-layer shear around 35 kt should be sufficient for organized updrafts assuming there is enough forcing to get them going. Storms should exit the forecast area by around midnight. Upper ridging develops over the southwestern CONUS mid-week, favoring a dry pattern Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday looks warm with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Thursday sees a slight cool- down into the 80s. Northwest upper flow develops over the area by the end of the week with weak perturbations rounding the ridge, bringing chances for storms mainly during the overnight periods Friday night into Saturday and Saturday night into Sunday. Chances remain low due to the low-predictability nature with these weakly forced systems. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 There is some potential for mvfr to ifr cigs after 11Z at TOP and FOE, otherwise VFR is expected at all locations. Winds southerly generally 10kts or less through the period. Potential for tsra increases after 21Z and will look at inclusion with next issuance. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...53