155
FXUS64 KTSA 242322
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Cold front currently near a Tulsa to Ardmore line and making slow
but steady progress eastward. Conditions have become increasingly
unstable ahead of the front through the day and minimal inhibition
remains supporting short term guidance of storm initiation along
the front during the mid afternoon hours. Shear will support
supercell mode, especially south of Interstate 40, with limited
low level shear and mostly straight and elongated hodographs
supportive of aggressive splitting supercells capable of very
large hail. Scattered severe storms are likely to persist will
into the evening before a gradual decrease in intensity and
coverage by late evening as the front continues its slow
southeastward progress.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Warm sector quickly recovers during the day Saturday with data
remaining consistent in a broad fetch of a strongly unstable and
deeply sheared airmass overspreading much of the Southern Plains
by late afternoon. The approaching shortwave trough and associated
wind fields are all within the classic configuration supporting a
significant severe weather event from late Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night. The higher storm coverage will focus north
of the local region along the sfc low track and warm frontal
zone. Further south along the dryline through OK storm coverage
remains more uncertain, however confidence remains high in at
least isolated to scattered supercells initiating along the
dryline through central OK and spreading into E OK during the
evening hours. The background environment supports significant
severe weather potential and weather conditions should be followed
closely from trusted weather sources Saturday evening into the
overnight hours.

The cold front associated with the passing wave lags to the west
and does not completely clear western AR until Sunday afternoon.
The bulk of guidance keeps the frontal passage dry with only low
chances of storms developing along the boundary during the day
Sunday. This period will continue to monitored for higher storm
potential but at this time it appears Sunday is a trend downward
in the severe potential.

A brief dry period Monday into Tuesday as sfc high pressure
prevails. The flow aloft becomes northwesterly through the Plains
by mid week and will eventually support repeated rounds of
thunderstorm complexes moving through the region Wednesday into
Friday. By late week the pattern likely returns to more
southwesterly flow aloft and unsettled and stormy conditions
persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A cold front is progressing across E OK this afternoon and will
bring storm chances to the TAFs across W AR and SE OK. Where
chances are higher, TEMPOs for MVFR conditions were maintained
during the favored time windows. The front never really clears the
W AR sites tonight, and MOS guidance shows potential for fog at
those sites late tonight into Saturday morning. After any fog that
develops lifts, VFR conditions will prevail thru the end of the
forecast. Storm chances will increase again for the E OK sites
just beyond the scope of this forecast.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  88  72  90 /   0   0  40   0
FSM   68  90  73  90 /  50   0  20  20
MLC   65  88  72  91 /  50   0  20  10
BVO   53  87  69  88 /   0   0  40   0
FYV   60  86  69  87 /  50   0  30  20
BYV   60  86  70  87 /  50   0  30  20
MKO   62  86  72  89 /  30   0  30  10
MIO   57  85  69  86 /  10   0  50  20
F10   61  87  72  90 /  20   0  40   0
HHW   67  87  72  89 /  50   0  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30