960
FXUS64 KTSA 261728
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Additional isolated to scattered storms are possible across
portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late
this afternoon into the early evening as a cold front currently
working into central Oklahoma moves across the area.
with an unstable airmass already in place across the region, any
storm that develops will have the potential to become severe with
large hail the main concern. Tornadoes will also possible with
storms that may interact with any leftover boundaries from previous
convection. This will be especially true across western Arkansas,
where a couple of boundaries are present.

Have only made a few adjustments to the forecast for today to better
reflect the latest trends in observations and short-term model guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Cooler and drier weather will filter in behind the front tonight
with lows dropping into the low 60s and upper 50s. A quiet day
looks to be in store for Memorial Day on Monday as subtle mid
level and surface ridging builds into the region. The mid level
ridge then begins to build more into the western CONUS over the
coming week, with a shift in the pattern to northwest flow aloft
over much of the Southern Plains. Daily thunderstorm complexes are
likely to develop across the High Plains and track across the
forecast area nightly Tuesday night through Thursday night.
Locally heavy rainfall will be the primary concern, with some
limited severe potential also likely to accompany any MCS that
moves through the region.

THe unsettles pattern continues into next weekend as we remain on
the periphery of the ridge and increased westerly flow aloft
continues over the area. Daily thunderstorm chances will continue
during this time as well with the warm and moist airmass remaining
in place through the period.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Mainly VFR conditions prevail this afternoon across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas with some MVFR ceilings across
northeast Oklahoma. The trend of mostly VFR conditions will prevail
through the valid period. Isolated thunderstorms have the potential
impact the NW AR sites late this afternoon and early evening. Have
added at short-term VCTS to handle this possibility.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  88  62  84 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   66  90  64  86 /  20   0   0  10
MLC   64  91  64  82 /  10   0  10  30
BVO   58  87  59  82 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   61  85  60  83 /  20   0   0  10
BYV   61  84  60  84 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   63  87  62  83 /  10   0   0  20
MIO   59  84  60  81 /  10   0   0  10
F10   62  87  62  83 /  10   0  10  20
HHW   65  90  65  83 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...10