276
FXUS64 KTSA 181500
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1000 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Areas of fog across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas have dissipated
this morning. A warm and humid day is on tap across the area as
high temperatures soar into the mid to upper 80s for most
locations this afternoon. Subtle surface to mid level ridging
building into the region will keep skies mostly clear through the
day with light winds. Going forecast remains in good shape with no
updates needed this morning.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Shortwave ridging remains largely in control Sunday, with another
very warm and humid afternoon, as some spots likely reach low 90s.
Signal remains in strong to severe thunderstorm development along
the dry line to our west late Sunday afternoon across northwest
OK, some of which eventually moves east toward our area. This
activity will be on the decline Sunday night as it moves this far
east. Dry line appears less active Monday with increased capping
spreading north as mid level heights again rise temporarily.

Potentially more active severe weather day is possible Tuesday as
a stronger shortwave ejects into the Central Plains, resulting in
stronger deep layer wind fields and modest height falls into the
Southern Plains. Uncertainty continues regarding storm mode and
coverage, but this period appears to offer the highest chance of
severe weather for this region.

Cold front expected to push through Wednesday with storm chances
continuing. Evolution of the pattern into late next week remains
in question, but generally looks active.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Fog will reduce visibilities and ceilings at a few spots during
the first couple hours of the forecast period, otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail with light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  63  89  70 /   0   0   0  30
FSM   87  64  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   88  64  89  71 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   87  60  88  68 /   0   0   0  40
FYV   85  61  87  69 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   85  61  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   84  63  87  69 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   85  61  86  68 /   0   0   0  30
F10   86  63  87  70 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   86  65  87  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05