Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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094 FXUS64 KTSA 231734 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1234 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1051 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Pronounced boundary currently extends from approximately Okmulgee to Poteau with scattered showers recently developing along this corridor. A more notable region of boundary layer recovery is ongoing across N TX and will eventually spread northward along the sharpening dryline over western OK by mid afternoon. Regarding near term forcing and possible storm development, weak but persistent warm advection atop the boundary through E OK may be sufficient to support isolated to scattered storms through the afternoon though uncertainty remains high. Further south and west, forcing is expected to be stronger and thus storm initiation chances appear higher within the stronger instability axis. As these storms develop then motions could take them into the forecast area by late afternoon into the evening hours. The background environment remains unstable and sheared both for any elevated storms and certainly for more surface based storms. This maintains a risk of severe weather through the evening with the overall idea being lesser coverage of severe potential than has occurred the last two days. Updated forecast will adjust for boundary place and resultant precip coverage trends while incorporating minor sky cover adjustments. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Showers and storms will remain possible overnight, but coverage may remain somewhat limited. A cold front will move across the area Friday afternoon and evening, with at least widely scattered storms expected to develop along this boundary by late afternoon from northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma. The greatest severe weather risk during this forecast period will come late Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday evening as a strong upper level disturbance moves into the area. A very unstable airmass will be in place by late Saturday afternoon and evening, and storms that develop in central Oklahoma will quickly become severe and move into our forecast area. All severe hazards will be possible with these storms, with the severe weather threat possibly diminishing some by late evening into the overnight hours as the storms move into northwest Arkansas. A pattern change to a northwest flow aloft will take place late this weekend into next week. We will start off next week dry, but weak disturbances in the northwest flow aloft may result in daily MCS activity beginning as early as late Tuesday night and continuing for much of the rest of the week. Late night and morning will be the most likely time frame for any precipitation next week. Have kept pops low for now, but higher than the nearly non-existant NBM pops. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Mix of VFR to MVFR conditions ongoing across the local region and this is likely to remain the case through the afternoon as ceilings persist but slowly rise. Scattered showers are also likely to persist with a few thunderstorms possible, however chances remain low for impacts at any specific terminal. Additional storms will attempt to spread into and / or across the forecast area this evening and overnight. Coverage and duration of these storms remains uncertain and forecasts will attempt to show the low potential. Otherwise expect MVFR ceilings to again develop and expand late tonight through tomorrow morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 83 70 85 63 / 30 30 20 10 FSM 84 71 87 70 / 30 50 20 30 MLC 82 72 87 67 / 40 40 20 20 BVO 83 68 83 55 / 20 30 30 10 FYV 82 69 83 61 / 20 40 30 30 BYV 83 68 83 62 / 10 30 40 30 MKO 82 69 84 64 / 30 30 30 20 MIO 83 69 82 59 / 10 20 30 10 F10 81 69 85 63 / 40 30 20 20 HHW 83 69 86 68 / 30 50 10 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...07