Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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095 FXUS64 KTSA 261536 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1036 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1035 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Additional isolated to scattered storms are possible across portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late this afternoon into the early evening as a cold front currently working into central Oklahoma moves across the area. with an unstable airmass already in place across the region, any storm that develops will have the potential to become severe with large hail the main concern. Tornadoes will also possible with storms that may interact with any leftover boundaries from previous convection. This will be especially true across western Arkansas, where a couple of boundaries are present. Have only made a few adjustments to the forecast for today to better reflect the latest trends in observations and short-term model guidance. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Cooler and drier weather will filter in behind the front tonight with lows dropping into the low 60s and upper 50s. A quiet day looks to be in store for Memorial Day on Monday as subtle mid level and surface ridging builds into the region. The mid level ridge then begins to build more into the western CONUS over the coming week, with a shift in the pattern to northwest flow aloft over much of the Southern Plains. Daily thunderstorm complexes are likely to develop across the High Plains and track across the forecast area nightly Tuesday night through Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall will be the primary concern, with some limited severe potential also likely to accompany any MCS that moves through the region. THe unsettles pattern continues into next weekend as we remain on the periphery of the ridge and increased westerly flow aloft continues over the area. Daily thunderstorm chances will continue during this time as well with the warm and moist airmass remaining in place through the period. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Outflow boundary from decaying storms will likely push into far northeast Oklahoma this morning before stalling. A brief period of MVFR ceilings will be possible near boundary, mainly at KBVO, including a few showers. Gusty southwest winds will develop by mid to late morning ahead of approaching front/dry line. A few storms will be possible across northwest Arkansas by mid to late afternoon but overall coverage will be limited. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 90 62 87 62 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 93 67 90 63 / 20 20 0 0 MLC 93 64 89 63 / 0 10 0 10 BVO 88 58 86 58 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 90 60 85 59 / 20 20 0 0 BYV 89 62 84 59 / 20 20 0 0 MKO 91 62 85 62 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 87 59 83 59 / 20 10 0 0 F10 92 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 91 65 90 64 / 0 20 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...12