Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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751 FXUS64 KTSA 161731 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1231 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1048 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The main update this morning was to adjust PoPs based on latest obs/trends. MCS across TX has a large stratiform precip region that is moving east across southern OK this morning. Raised PoPs down south and reduced PoPs across the north where activity is much more scattered. As we go into the afternoon PoPs will drop off generally, but remain widely scattered to scattered. With upper trough sliding in and the potential for some sunshine as clearing is noted behind MCS per satellite data, you can`t rule out spotty showers and storms. Data seems to be pointing to NW AR for a bit better storm coverage, and this is reflected in the grids. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Strong thunderstorms continue this morning across portions of northeast Oklahoma, with scattered storms bubbling to the southwest in parts of central and southwest Oklahoma as well. The strongest storms are developing ahead of an MCV near the Oklahoma/Kansas border very near I-35 moving to the east- northeast. The overall potential for severe weather through the rest of the early morning hours today continues to wane, although at least a low chance for marginally severe hail and wind across northeast and east central Oklahoma will exist through sunrise given available shear and instability. Attention then turns to the development ongoing in the South Plains region of Texas, extending into southwest Oklahoma. The expectation is for this to continue to shift eastward through the day, moving into portions of southeast and east central Oklahoma in a decreasing phase after sunrise. A front expected to be near I-44 mid to late morning should also become a focus for additional development into the afternoon as well. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this evening, continuing through the rest of the night and into Friday, as the main upper level system finally approaches and moves through the region. A marginal severe weather threat will exist with storms this evening and again on Friday, with the greatest potential likely to be in southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas given the location of the co-located instability/shear max. Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be a concern, as well, considering antecedent conditions and well above normal precipitable water values. Upper level ridging behind the departing upper level system will signal an end to the current active period, with dry weather for most of the weekend and temperatures running about 10 degrees above normal. MCS activity Sunday night and again Monday night could again affect areas near the Kansas and Missouri borders on the northern periphery of the upper ridge. Deterministic models are in much better agreement on their handling of the Tuesday front, bringing it through the area. This should lead to higher shower and thunderstorm chances and lower temperatures from Tuesday through at least mid week. High temperatures have been trended strongly toward the cooler traditional MOS guidance blend beginning Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Not confident regarding precip coverage for this TAF, so stayed conservative and used VCTS or VCSH mention during the more favored times in the CAM data. Cigs should be VFR for the most part thru this TAF period, aside from some lingering MVFR in the near term across E OK, and by late tonight into tomorrow morning when guidance suggests a chance of lower cigs and/or vsbys at times. Used TEMPOs to convey a higher probability chance but not confident enough for prevailing at any one site. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 80 61 79 61 / 50 50 50 10 FSM 83 65 79 63 / 60 60 70 30 MLC 81 62 77 60 / 80 40 60 20 BVO 78 60 78 57 / 40 40 30 10 FYV 80 60 76 57 / 50 60 70 30 BYV 80 60 74 58 / 50 60 70 30 MKO 80 63 76 61 / 70 50 60 20 MIO 77 60 77 58 / 50 50 50 10 F10 79 62 77 60 / 70 40 60 20 HHW 80 63 77 62 / 80 50 60 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...30