209
FXUS64 KTSA 171711
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Fetch of low level gulf moisture advecting north has resulted
in more cloud cover than currently reflected in the forecast. Update
this morning will mainly to increase sky cover- mainly across far
E OK and NW AR. Sufficient heating through the afternoon
should allow afternoon high temps to be realized, so will leave those
as they are. Remaining first period elements outside of sky cover
will also be left as they are.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Through roughly the middle part of this work week, the region
should be squeezed between upper level troughing in the northern
Rockies, upper level ridging in the east and a tropical low in the
western Gulf of Mexico that should eventually move north to
northwest across Mexico. The further north that the tropical
system moves, the more impact it will have to parts of eastern
Oklahoma toward mid week - including rain chances, increased cloud
cover and lower temperatures. The more northern influence offered
by the NAM appears to be a notable outlier at this point and will
be largely discarded in favor of the drier and warmer remainder
of the model suite and the NBM offering.

Upper level high pressure will extend into the area once again
toward the weekend, signaling a return to increasing heat and
humidity. Through much of this period, opted to reduce forecast
highs from the NBM initialization more toward MOS guidance and
also to raise dew points some, leveraging the raw model consensus
blend. Heat indices during this time frame will at least flirt
with Heat Advisory criteria. A weakness in the upper level high
late in the weekend and into early next week will lead to low
shower and thunderstorm chances for mainly parts of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A brief period of MVFR cigs is possible across the NW AR sites
early in the period, otherwise VFR TAF elements will prevail
throughout the valid period at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  75  89  73 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   93  75  90  73 /  10  10  20   0
MLC   90  73  87  71 /   0  10  10   0
BVO   93  73  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   90  71  87  69 /  10  10  20   0
BYV   91  71  87  69 /  10   0  20   0
MKO   91  73  88  72 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   91  73  88  71 /   0   0   0   0
F10   90  73  87  71 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   89  72  87  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...23