Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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098 FXUS64 KTSA 140156 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 856 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 856 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 An ongoing complex of organized thunderstorms across central and southeast Kansas will make a run at far northeast Oklahoma over the next few hours. The environment across northeast Oklahoma is not the most favorable for storm continuation through the evening as capping increases and mid level dry air will likely weaken updraft formation. The best chances will stay along the OK/KS border with storms expected to dissipate as they near I-44 later tonight. Gusty strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with any storm that enters northeast Oklahoma, along with frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Otherwise, a warm and humid night is expected across the region with mainly light winds and mid to high cloud cover over the area. Lows tonight will generally be in the low 70s to mid 60s. Update for tonight adjusted PoPs/Thunder grids across northeast Oklahoma to account for trends in storm activity. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Weakening frontal boundary is forecast to eventually push into far northeast OK and northwest AR Friday afternoon. Higher dew points are likely to pool near the frontal zone, with heat indices reaching 100-105 through a large portion of northeast OK. The enhanced moisture could also result in an isolated storm or two Friday afternoon/evening. By Saturday the front will have basically washed out with a bit lower dew points keeping HI values down a few degrees. A shortwave moving across the Central Plains late Saturday into Sunday will enhance storm coverage to our north during that period, with a few potentially drifting into far northern areas. Once this moves east, deeper moisture should surge north as the upper ridge moves east. At least isolated afternoon and evening a few degrees storms expected along with few degrees of cooling, but with higher humidity. Ridge is expected to expand back to the west later in the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions will prevail with increasing high cloud from distant storms to the north overnight. Sfc winds will drop off after sunset and should remain fairly light for the remainder of the period. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 96 71 95 / 10 10 10 10 FSM 69 96 74 98 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 68 94 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 69 94 69 95 / 20 10 10 10 FYV 67 93 70 93 / 0 10 10 10 BYV 68 92 71 93 / 0 20 20 10 MKO 68 94 71 94 / 10 0 0 10 MIO 70 91 71 93 / 20 20 20 10 F10 68 94 69 93 / 10 0 0 10 HHW 65 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...30