Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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152 FXUS64 KTSA 170527 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 857 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Latest water vapor imagery shows the forecast area sandwiched in- between mid/upper-level ridging along the eastern CONUS and a deepening trough over the Pacific NW/Great Basin regions. A few diurnally-driven showers tried developing across portions of northwest AR earlier this afternoon/evening. However, despite the very warm temperatures, with very weak forcing in the low/mid- levels, they were unable to sustain themselves more than just a few minutes. With the sun setting, the existing low precipitation chances will diminish completely over the next hour or sooner and the remainder of the evening will remain rain-free. Overall, the forecast for the remainder of the night remains on track, with very little changes made from the afternoon forecast package. Another abnormally warm night is expected with low temperatures bottoming out in the low-mid 70s. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Sunday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Several of the CAMS suggest a broken line of showers/thunderstorms will begin to propagate northward from the Gulf during the day Monday. There is a slight chance (20 percent) some of this activity could move into far southeast Oklahoma by late afternoon or early evening, but more likely will begin to dissipate. Regardless, increasing low level moisture, coupled with strong afternoon heating, may allow for a few isolated storms to develop across far SE OK/NW AR. Overall coverage again will likely remain limited. High temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal with heat indices approaching triple digits in some locations. Slightly cooler conditions are expected during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame as winds become more easterly. Increasing high clouds are also expected from tropical system, which is forecast to move westward across south Texas. Rain chances will remain low, and again be confined to far southeast Oklahoma on Wednesday. Warming trend returns late week into the early part of next weekend as upper ridge builds back over the southern Plains. A weak frontal boundary may approach from the north on Sunday and therefore kept slight chance NBM PoPs for NE OK/NW AR. Parts of northeast Oklahoma have received little rainfall over the past two weeks and with no significant rain forecast through the extended period and potentially beyond, abnormally dry conditions may become a concern. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Clear or mostly clear conditions will prevail through the overnight hours with light southerly winds mostly in the 5-10 kt range. During the day Monday a few low level cumulus clouds may develop once again near 5 kft with some high cloudiness as well late in the day. Winds will be breezy Monday, gusting to 20-25 kts out of the south for most terminals. An isolated pop up shower may occur for the northwest AR terminals (10-15% chance), but the main impacts would be from gusty and erratic outflow winds. Confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 93 75 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 92 75 90 73 / 20 0 20 0 MLC 90 73 89 71 / 0 0 10 0 BVO 93 73 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 89 70 87 68 / 20 0 20 0 BYV 90 71 88 68 / 20 0 20 0 MKO 90 74 89 71 / 0 0 10 0 MIO 91 73 89 70 / 10 0 0 0 F10 90 73 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 88 71 87 70 / 10 0 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...06