206
FXUS64 KTSA 230532
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1232 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 916 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

True cold front entering NE OK this evening, though at this
time most of the precip is associated with an outflow boundary
further south. Main updates will be for PoPs- with focus through 06z
on latest trends which will keep highest PoPs over east central
Oklahoma. After 06z, several model solutions continue with additional
development back to the north as a little bit of elevated instability
coincides with the 850mb boundary. Coverage is a bit uncertain, especially
in the 09z-12z period, so have opted to trim back from categorical
PoPs with this update. Will also keep thunder mention to just chance.
Overnight low temperatures look reasonable as they reflect cooler air
infiltrating the region overnight.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing
Monday morning across much of the forecast area. Precipitation
chances will gradually end west-to-east through the day, with
chances exiting the area by mid-late evening. Rain and cloud cover
will keep daytime temperatures very cool on Monday, with
widespread highs generally in the 70s. More sunshine and drier
weather will warm daytime temperatures up into the mid-upper 70s
and lower 80s on Tuesday, remaining below seasonal average.
Likewise, overnight lows will be near or a few degrees below
seasonal average through the long term.

Models and ensembles continue to indicate a secondary upper-level
trough/cut-off low developing and digging south over the Southern
Plains (OK/AR region) late Tuesday-Wednesday which will likely
produce additional chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Unfortunately, there is still high uncertainty with regards to
timing and evolution of this upper-level feature in the global
models and ensembles. To make matters more complicated, models
also want to develop a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico by
midweek, tracking northward and making landfall somewhere in the
northern Gulf coast by late week. This potential tropical system
may also dictate how the upper-level low tracks and potentially
may ingest an abundance of tropical moisture,
affecting/influencing precipitation chances by the end of the week
and into next week. Better details to come in later forecasts.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Corridor of showers and storm currently aligns near the slow
moving cold front and this trend will continue into the overnight
hours with a slow south and eastward progress. Additional showers
and a few storms are expected to develop north of the front
across portions of NE OK and eventually NW AR with this precip
continuing into the day Monday. Additionally, low clouds with low
MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to spread south in wake of the
front and persist through much of the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  78  57  78 /  10  10  40  10
FSM   63  83  61  80 /  10  10  40  20
MLC   58  85  58  81 /   0  10  50  20
BVO   52  78  52  80 /  10  20  20  10
FYV   58  78  55  76 /  20  10  30  30
BYV   59  76  55  75 /  30  10  30  30
MKO   56  79  57  78 /  10  10  40  20
MIO   56  76  53  77 /  20  10  20  10
F10   55  81  55  79 /   0  10  40  10
HHW   60  86  60  82 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...07