892
FXUS64 KTSA 150444
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1144 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 745 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A remnant outflow boundary drifting southwestward into far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening was enough
to spark a couple of short lived showers in the terrain. Rain
chances through the rest of the night will be below mentionable
with the loss of daytime heating along the boundary limiting the
potential for more showers. A complex of thunderstorms is
currently taking shape across west Texas/Kansas this evening as a
shortwave trough ejects out into the Plains. Mid level ridging has
a firm grip over much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
however, which should steer any overnight storms north of the
area, though a stray shower or storm could graze along the OK/KS
border late tonight. Therefore, a rather quiet night is expected
areawide with overnight lows bottoming out in the upper 60s to low
70s.

Current forecast holds mostly on track...only update was to remove
PoPs through the evening period.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

There remains a low chance for isolated shower/ storm development
primarily across NW AR during the afternoon/ early evening
tomorrow as the aforementioned wave progresses ENE. Otherwise
Saturday and Sunday are currently expected to remain predominantly
dry. There are some hints at additional isolated precip
development Sunday afternoon... primarily across far E OK/ NW
AR... but opted to keep PoPs less than 10% for now. Additionally,
pressure gradients tighten this weekend in response to
strengthening lee lows in the N/C Plains. This will provide
breezier conditions (15-25 mph) which should help keep WBGT values
down a touch. Still, summer heat will continue across the region
with high temps remaining in the mid 90s and heat indices flirting
with advisory criteria this weekend.

For late weekend into next week, ridging increases across E CONUS
as longwave troughing expands over the intermountain west. Under
this pattern, low level southerly flow is forecast to persist for
much of the extended period. Resulting winds will continue to be
fairly breezy to windy through the first part of the week... with
gusts up to 25-35 mph. By mid to late week, the ridge begins to
expand westward into the S Plains. This may allow for additional
moisture from the gulf to arrive and increase PWATs, especially
across eastern portions of the CWA. At least low chances for rain/
thunder are forecast each afternoon next week, initially highest
across W Arkansas, then expanding west to include E OK by later in
the week as moisture increases. That being said, widespread
wetting rainfall is not expected at this time.

While high temps may drop a few degrees next week due to
increasing moisture/ clouds, still expecting most locations to
approach or exceed 90 degrees. Low temperatures will remain near
70 degrees through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Southerly winds
should become gusty in the 15 to 20 kt range during the afternoon
at the NE OK terminals, with gustiness dropping off with sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  95  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   73  97  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   69  94  71  95 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   69  94  71  94 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   71  94  71  94 /  10  20   0   0
MKO   70  93  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   72  93  72  93 /  10  10   0   0
F10   69  93  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   68  93  72  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22