500
FXUS64 KTSA 191837
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
137 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Isolated to widely scattered showers remain possible through the
afternoon hours, mainly in two separate locations. One area of
focus will be across northeast Oklahoma, mainly north of I-44 near
a differential heating boundary leftover from overnight and
morning rain across western and north central Oklahoma. A few
rumbles of thunder could be possible in this zone, with some
heavy downpours the primary concern. The other area of focus will
be within a narrow, deep layer moisture axis streaming
northwestward across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas
associated with TS Albert moving through the western Gulf.
Instability remains limited in this region, but enough exists
that a fews storms cannot be ruled out. High PWAT values will lead
to high rainfall rates with locally heavy downpours the main
concern with any shower/storm through the afternoon. With the loss
of daytime heating this evening, showers are expected to
dissipate quickly toward sunset. Otherwise, a warm and humid
afternoon will give way to another mild night with lows in the
upper 60s to mid 70s across the area.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Upper level ridging will begin expanding back westward during the
day Thursday which should lead to diminishing cloud cover over the
region and the beginning of a warmup heading into the weekend. A
few more isolated showers still look possible across mainly the
southern half of Oklahoma Thursday afternoon where deeper
moisture remains in place. Have maintained PoPs for those areas
tomorrow though coverage is expected to be minimal at best due to
the expanding high.

Much warmer temperatures are forecast from Friday through the
weekend as the upper high becomes planted over the Southern
Plains. Highs near 100 degrees look to be common across the
region, with heat index values likely rising above that. Heat
headlines could be needed at some point this weekend, especially
by Sunday as moisture increases. The southern periphery of a
diffuse frontal boundary could slip into northeast Oklahoma
Sunday morning and bring some low chances for a few showers from
northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas during the day. This
boundary is expected to wash out and shift back north of the
region by Monday.

Guidance continues to indicate that the upper ridge will shift
further westward early next week, though differences remain in how
far west within the various deterministic and ensemble model
guidance. Nevertheless, some semblance of northwest flow aloft
should spread over the region from early to mid next week,
bringing increased chances for showers and storms to affect the
area.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Bottom line upfront...VFR conditions should prevail thru the
period. Several different cloud layers are possible at any of the
sites, with lower clouds (upper bound MVFR trending toward lower
end VFR) appearing from mid-morning thru just after sunset each
day, though confidence in a larger area of sub-VFR cigs is not
high enough to mention. Chances for shra/tsra too low to mention
also. Sfc winds will remain below impactful levels.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  91  74  94 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   74  93  73  95 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   72  89  71  93 /   0  20   0   0
BVO   69  91  71  93 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   69  91  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   68  89  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   72  89  72  92 /   0  20   0   0
MIO   70  89  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
F10   71  89  71  92 /   0  20   0   0
HHW   73  89  71  91 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30