382
FXUS64 KTSA 190025
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
725 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Storms that developed off the dryline this afternoon should
dissipate west of the forecast area this evening. By late tonight
into Thursday morning, guidance continues to indicate at least
low potential for some sunrise surprise high-based showers and
storms close to the KS border to the north and west of Tulsa. Will
maintain low PoPs in this area. No noticeable changes were made
to the going forecast.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Mid level moist axis and influence of passing weak wave will
likely support isolated late night into early morning convection
which may spread into portions of NE OK. Overall coverage and
duration will keep precip chances low with any precip ending by
mid / late morning. Otherwise, warm overnight low temps expected
and generally 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Hot and humid conditions will develop Thursday afternoon with
high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal and dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s across much of the region. A sustained
southerly wind will help however wet bulb globe temps support a
notable increase in heat stress conditions area wide. By late
afternoon a weak sfc trough will extend through north central OK
and isolated to scattered storms could develop and spread eastward
through Thursday evening. Considerable uncertainty remains in
overall storm coverage, however an unstable and sufficiently
sheared environment will support potential for strong multicells
or transient supercells. Deeply mixed subcloud layers will favor
stronger outflow winds and, once the boundary layer decouples, a
steady downtrend in severe potential is likely.

Heat impacts continue on Friday with good agreement on high
temperatures trending upward and approaching record levels at
some locations. Focusing boundaries for storms are expected to
remain west and north of the local region through Friday evening.
Low chance of storm outflows propagating into NW AR by early
Saturday with a corresponding chance of storms, however this
scenario remains a low potential.

Hot temps continue Saturday while low storm chances remain across
NE OK through NW AR in proximity to the stalled remnant frontal
zone. As the stronger wave approaches from the west the focus
becomes the associated cold front which makes slow but steady
progress eastward. A window from late Saturday night through
Sunday night appears most likely for the frontal passage across
the forecast area. Guidance continues to vary considerably on the
coverage of precip associated with the frontal passage, and for
now, chances will be kept low. Temperatures will finally begin to
cool down Sunday and more so Monday through Tuesday. Some guidance
does show considerably cooler temps for early next week and will
be a trend to follow. Otherwise the pattern may remain supportive
of rain chances into the middle of next week pending the magnitude
of the developing central CONUS trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the period. Low
chance of isolated showers/ a stray elevated thunderstorm around
the BVO/TUL/RVS vicinity between 09-15z. However, coverage is
expected to remain low enough to preclude mention at this time.
Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop across
NE OK sites after 21z, though will not include with this forecast
update given low probability and expectation for limited
coverage. Any storm which develops during this period may produce
gusty outflow winds. Otherwise, a mix of mid and high level clouds
will prevail through the period with southerly winds increasing
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  96  75  99 /   0  10  30   0
FSM   69  93  72  97 /   0  10  20   0
MLC   71  96  73  98 /   0  10  20   0
BVO   68  98  69 100 /  10  30  30   0
FYV   66  91  70  95 /   0  10  20   0
BYV   65  91  70  95 /   0  10  20  10
MKO   69  93  73  96 /   0  10  20   0
MIO   68  93  72  97 /   0  10  20   0
F10   69  96  73  98 /   0  10  20   0
HHW   69  95  71  97 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43