511
FXUS64 KTSA 160126
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
826 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 826 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Current short term forecast on track this evening with no
significant changes anticipated. Light precipitation, wrapping
around northern side of remnant low, will likely remain east of
the region across north-central Arkansas overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

As of early this afternoon, an H5 low, the remnants of Francine,
was centered over the Mississippi River on the border of AR and
MS. Deep layer moisture wrapping around the northern side of the
system will bring low rain/storm chances to portions of NW AR to
the east of I-49 this afternoon. After fading with the loss of
daytime heating, low rain/storm chances are expected to spread
farther west into the forecast area on Monday as a lobe of
vorticity and associated deep layer moisture continue to wrap
around the remnant low of Francine. For the forecast, will spread
low PoPs farther west than the NBM (blended consensus) per HREF
and CONSRaw forecasts.

Short-term guidance indicates that a band of early morning showers
and storms will form once again Monday morning along a mid-level
deformation zone, but most likely over central KS. Chances that
any of this activity will affect NE OK are too low to mention in
the forecast at this time.

Daytime highs on Monday should be a tick lower given closer
approach and influence from the upper low to the east.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A high-over-low split-flow or rex block is expected to persist
over the eastern CONUS thru the forecast period. A strong upper
trough is moving onshore the West Coast today, with ridging aloft
downstream over the High Plains. With time, this initial strong
shortwave trough will eject northeast toward the central/northern
Plains as ridging aloft shifts east and overhead and holds firm.
Models are not as optimistic today regarding chances for
rain/storms Tuesday night into Wednesday and PoPs have been
lowered. High temp forecast has trended upward Thursday and
Friday, with some places reaching the mid 90s, or about 10 degrees
above average for this time of year.

By next weekend, ensemble cluster data suggests that the western
CONUS trough will shift far enough east/northeast to place a
boundary close enough to force showers and storms into our area,
but lots of uncertainty remains. The brand new 12Z EC suggests
that a southern stream wave will eject out of the Southwest, but
it may be Sunday or even into Monday before substantial changes
occur, which is also similar to what the 12Z GFS has. The NBM
yielded slight chance to chance PoPs for next weekend, and see no
reason to change at this point. The current forecast highs are
cooler for Saturday, but that could get pushed back a day if the
current deterministic model runs hold.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

For the western AR terminals, high (>80%) chance of MVFR ceilings
returning overnight with equal likelihood of falling below 2kft.
Majority of guidance also suggests stratus will be slower to burn
off Monday morning so held onto these conditions until 17Z with
continued low VFR clouds into the afternoon. There will be a low
(<30%) chance of afternoon storms impacting terminals as vorticity
lobe rotates through the area. Winds also are expected to be
gusty again Monday afternoon. For the OK sites, VFR conditions
expected through the period with easterly winds near 10 kt Monday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   68  84  68  89 /   0  20  10   0
MLC   65  87  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   63  89  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   63  81  61  86 /   0  20  10   0
BYV   65  80  61  86 /  20  30  10   0
MKO   65  84  65  87 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   63  86  62  89 /   0  20   0   0
F10   64  86  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   66  87  66  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24