Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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196 FXUS64 KTSA 181121 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 621 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Yet another seasonably hot and humid day is on tap across eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas today, although much like yesterday, continued breezy conditions should take the edge off the heat to some degree. Low clouds currently expanding across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas should persist into mid morning before diminishing toward midday. Deeper moisture in southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas could support another day with isolated thunderstorm development, with the best chance being during the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 For overall messaging purposes, the expectations for the rest of the week, the weekend and into early next week remain the same, with a relative minimum in afternoon temperatures mid week, increasing temperatures for the weekend and low thunderstorm chances late in the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Some uncertainty continues regarding how much of an impact the tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico will have on the forecast area - mainly in the form of increased cloud cover and associated temperature reduction. There is a good chance that spots in southeast Oklahoma stay in the 80s on Wednesday due to this. Toward the weekend, upper level high pressure looks to build into the region, bringing above normal temperatures to the region. Triple digit heat index values look probable, with some potential for at least one day featuring heat indices supportive of heat headlines. The more likely time period for headlines would be late in the weekend and into early next week, as moisture increases in association with a weakness in the upper level high that should also lead to the low thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas of low ceilings in the 2-3 kft range have developed across portions of northwest AR and eastern OK. In general, these low ceilings will expand (at times) through late morning before diminishing in the early afternoon. Scattered low clouds in the 3-5 kft range will then persist into the evening and overnight hours. A few isolated showers may form over northwest AR and southeast OK this afternoon, but with probability of precipitation at or below 20 percent this was not included in the TAFs. Breezy southerly winds will gust 20-30 kts today, diminishing to 10-15 kts tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 91 74 91 72 / 0 0 10 0 FSM 91 73 90 73 / 20 10 10 0 MLC 90 72 89 70 / 10 0 10 0 BVO 90 72 90 67 / 0 10 10 0 FYV 87 70 88 67 / 20 10 10 0 BYV 88 68 88 67 / 20 10 10 0 MKO 89 72 88 71 / 0 0 10 0 MIO 90 71 90 69 / 0 10 10 0 F10 89 71 88 69 / 0 0 10 10 HHW 88 71 86 72 / 10 0 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...06