Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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960 FXUS63 KUNR 102325 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 525 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather is developing early this afternoon, with the primary hazards being locally heavy rainfall, large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado threat. - Near to above average temperatures with near daily chances for showers and storms through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 1253 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 19Z upper level analysis has strong short wave entering the Northern Plains at the moment. Severe thunderstorm watch 404 has been issued, with strong to severe storms ongoing. At the surface, strong southerly boundary layer winds are ongoing, with a strong frontal boundary crossing Northeast Wyoming. Temperatures are in the 70s. Upper level wave will continue to cross the area today into tonight, with strong to severe storms crossing western SD this afternoon, and eventually exiting the forecast area early this evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are likely with some of these storms. Best chances of an isolated tornado will be across northwestern SD through mid afternoon. Broad upper level ridge then takes over for Tuesday into Thursday with mostly dry conditions expected. Only isolated storms are expected from Wednesday into Thursday. Closed upper low lifts across the area on Friday with better chances for storms. Upper ridge builds across the northern Plains into the weekend, with scattered storms possible each day. Temperatures will remain at or above average through the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 523 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A line of storms is pushing through western SD into central SD this evening. MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected within this line of storms. Otherwise expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15 AVIATION...Dye