111
FXUS63 KUNR 270150
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
750 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening

-Warmer and drier this week with thunderstorms returning for the
 second half of the week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Main band of showers and thunderstorms is starting to exit far
eastern portions of the forecast area right now, with isolated to
widely scattered showers/thundershowers now developing over
northeast WY with a secondary disturbance passing over eastern
MT/far northeast WY. Brief gusty winds have been noted with these
showers. Expect this activity to expand into the Black Hills area
through the evening, then dissipate after midnight across
southwest SD. Have updated the forecast to adjust PoP chances and
cloud cover based on latest CAMS and radar trends. Further
adjustments could be needed through the evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 1257 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Upper trough will continue to move across the region this
evening, supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
A few storms may contain gusty winds and hail. Ridging will then
prevail for the first part of the week, with warmer conds and dry
weather. However, the next upper trough will push into the Rockies
by mid week as long trajectory southerly flow allows LL moisture
return along the plains adjacent to the Rockies, supporting
unsettled conds through the end of the week. Temps will be at or
above seasonal norms for the first half of the week, cooling down
toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued At 520 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Main area of showers and thunderstorms will move through and exit
far eastern portions of the forecast area over the next 2 to 3
hours. Isolated showers are also still possible from northeast WY
into the Black Hills area this evening as a weak disturbance
passes over these areas. Brief MVFR conditions will accompany
heavier showers over south central SD through early evening.
Otherwise, VFR conditions can generally be expected through the
forecast period. Breezy northwesterly winds will develop over much
of the area on Monday, especially the western SD plains, where
some gusts to over 30 kts can be expected.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...26