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236
FXUS61 KAKQ 190657
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
257 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Drier weather is expected today, albeit with clouds persisting
through much of the day. Dry conditions and a clearing sky
return for Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more
summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Much drier today with mostly cloudy skies.

- High temperatures warm into the 70s inland, but stay in the
  60s along the coast.

High pressure is slowly ridging southward toward the area this
morning. Weak sfc low pressure (1010 mb) is centered just off the NC
OBX. Aloft, broad troughing extends from the nrn Mid-Atlantic
southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. The associated shortwave
axis is broadly aligned along the ern spine of the Appalachians.
This shortwave shifts E through today, shifting the upper flow to
the N-NE as ridging expands through the OH River Valley and ern
Great Lakes. This should funnel some drier air into the region,
especially across western and northern portions of the area (away
from the coast). Therefore, we may see clearing, especially toward
the later half of the afternoon. This could allow temps to rebound
into the mid 70s. Continue to go on the lower side of guidance (and
lower than NBM) for temps given some uncertainty on how fast the
clouds scour out. Along the coast and across SE VA/NE NC, moist low-
level flow will keep the dreary conditions in place. Compared to
yesterday (Saturday), there should be less/no drizzle and just
broken-overcast low clouds and breezy NE winds (especially along the
immediate coast). Highs here will likely stay in the mid 60s.
Otherwise, some low-level convergence and a final piece of upper
energy could spark some sporadic shower activity in the Piedmont.
Drier low-levels here should keep the coverage very isolated and
think the latest HRRR runs are too excited regarding this potential.
Will have a small area of low-end/slight chc PoPs mainly N of
Richmond.

Low clouds expand westward off the ocean again tonight. Lows will be
in the low-mid 50s (coolest MD Eastern Shore) and staying mainly
dry.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures
  Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures
  expected well inland.

- A noticeable warming trend begins Tuesday, though it remains
  cooler at the coast.

Sfc high pressure nudges further S for Monday. This weakens the
pressure gradient and NE winds along the coast should gradually
subside heading into the afternoon. However, it will likely stay
mostly cloudy and temps again struggle to get any higher than upper
60s here. For inland areas, expect to see noticeable clearing as the
day progresses with highs climbing into the mid-upper 70s. Overnight
lows Mon in the low-mid 50s, with some upper 40s possible in
typically cooler inland spots.

Upper ridging builds further across the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday.
Elongated sfc high pressure will also center over the area. Onshore
flow will continue along the coast, but it will be much lighter.
Temps range from the low 70s adjacent to the water to the upper 70s
and low 80s to the W in the I-95 corridor and Piedmont. Skies become
mostly sunny, with a few lower clouds lingering along the coast.
Lows Tue night in the mid-upper 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Trending warm/hot for the mid-week period.

- Afternoon/evening thunderstorms chances return to end the
  week.

A substantial warming trend is expected Wednesday and Thursday as a
ridge remains across the eastern CONUS and the upper flow shifts to
the W. Highs Wed in the mid-upper 80s (lower 80s coast). Highs for
Thursday have trended higher and NBM now indicates some lower 90s
are possible with high pressure settling offshore and sfc winds
becoming SW. However, the current forecast has upper 80s for most of
the area.

Global models continue to indicate that a cold front will likely
cross the region late in the week, but timing and coverage of
associated showers/thunderstorms remains uncertain. The 00z suite of
guidance generally trended slower w/ the front and the consensus now
favors a Thursday evening/overnight FROPA. For now, have mostly
stuck with NBM guidance for PoPs. This yields chance PoPs in the
afternoon/evening on Thursday and first half of the night.
Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability.
Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40-
50 kt of upper-level flow overspreading the region. May be a bit
cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Currently showing temps
around 80 across the N and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There will be
another chance for scattered afternoon showers Friday as a
disturbance aloft passes through, with the storm potential dependent
on the track of the sfc features. The best chance for thunder Fri is
currently across the SW. Near average temperatures Saturday with
another chance for scattered storms. Overnight lows through the
extended period generally remain in the 60s.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Sunday...

Degraded flight conditions are expected through at least the
rest of this morning. Latest obs indicate that CIGs are low-end
MVFR in the 1000-2000 ft range for most of the area, with IFR
CIGs along the Atlantic coast and in NE NC. Patchy drizzle from
RIC and points NE is also causing localized MVFR VSBY. CIGs
should drop to IFR for all terminals over the next few hrs,
though there may be occasional clearing that turns skies BKN-
SCT. CIGs could also drop to LIFR, but confidence in this is
lower and guidance has generally backed off on this. Patchy fog
(2-4 SM VSBY) could develop W of I-95 through 12z. Gradual
improvement is expected later today with slowly lifting CIGs and
a slow clearing trend. All terminals should be MVFR by 16z/12
PM and improvement to VFR is possible in the later aftn inland.
MVFR continues along the coast for most of the period. Light NE
winds expected at RIC and SBY this morning with 5-10 kt winds at
PHF, ORF, and ECG. NNE winds ~10 kt expected this aftn.

Outlook: CIGs likely degrade back to MVFR of IFR Sunday night,
potentially lingering along the coast Monday. VFR expected
elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Increasing NE wind and seas for the weekend. Small craft
  advisories will go into effect for southern portions of the
  marine area later tonight.

Late this aftn, weak low pressure was centered over ern NC while
sfc high pressure was centered over New England. Winds were ENE
5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-3
ft and seas were 3-4 ft. Low pressure will track east and off
the NC coast tonight into Sun, before very slowly pulling away
from the coast through Mon. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly
builds in from the N. Winds will become NE by tonight into Sun
ranging from 10-15 kt N to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt S. Seas
build to 4-5 ft N to 5-6 ft S (potentially 6-8ft if the wind
reaches 20-25kt). SCAs will go into effect later tonight from
Cape Charles S for the ocean, the mouth of the Bay, and the
Currituck Sound. Have added the other two coastal zns up to
Chincoteague VA starting at 7 am Sun morning. High pressure
builds across the Mid Atlc coast Tue into Wed, as weak low
pressure lingers off the SE coast. High pressure slides offshore
later in the week with the wind becoming SSW, but remaining
sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4 ft by Mon night/Tue, and
then 2-3 ft by midweek.

A moderate risk for rip currents continues into this evening,
with moderate for the northern beaches Sun and Mon, and high
for the southern beaches, due to increasing NE flow and
building seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 950 PM EDT Saturday...

Flood Warnings have been cancelled for Nottoway River near
Stony Creek.

Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from today will lead
to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early
next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood
thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight over-
performance would lead to additional flooding.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

Astronomical high tides will gradually increase over the next
several days, and this combined with increasing onshore flow
will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding later this
weekend into early next week, particularly for the middle
Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and
southern shore of the tidal Potomac.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT Monday
     for ANZ652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...AM/SW
AVIATION...MAM/SW
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...