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326
FXUS62 KCAE 190756
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
356 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, drier conditions, and near normal temperatures are
expected through Thursday. Unsettled conditions are possible by
late in the week into the weekend as moisture moves in from
the Atlantic. Well above normal temperatures are expected by
Sunday into early next week.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Another tranquil night is ongoing across the Midlands and CSRA with
high clouds across our western counties and a few low clouds
drifting in from the ocean. These clouds should not have much impact
on cooling with forecast lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Broad upper ridging centered to our west will continue to provide
warm and dry conditions today. The weather looks to be similar to
yesterday with passing scattered cumulus and periodically gusty east
winds this afternoon. PWATs remain between 1 and 1.25 inches meaning
showers are unlikely to develop though some of the guidance suggests
a few may pass close to the southeastern Midlands and Burke County,
GA. Highs today should reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
Mainly clear skies are expected during the overnight hours with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 60s.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The end of the week should be fairly uneventful as high pressure
remains the dominant weather feature. Deep easterly flow will
persist through much of the column, but the best moisture will
remain shunted to our south. PWAT values will be below normal
through Thursday, then begin to increase slightly Friday as a weak
wave rides under the surface ridge and eventually moves onshore. An
offshore upper low will keep this disurbance off to our south while
it brings a chance of showers to the eastern Midlands. Models have
been keeping this feature relatively weak for several runs, and it
doesn`t appear we`ll need to worry about any tropical development.
Some mid-level energy is progged to split from the main system and
move north up the coast Friday afternoon where it will remain
quasi-stationary off the Carolina`s coastline Friday night.

Temperatures will be right around seasonal average with highs in the
low to mid 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Saturday is a bit of a transition day. The upper low will retrograde
southwest toward the SC coastline while an upper ridge rides up and
over from the west. There will be enough moisture back in the area
with PW values around 1.5" to support diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms, mainly east of the I-20 corridor. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer than Friday, generally in the mid
90s.

The main concern then shifts to the potential for extreme heat late
in the weekend into early next week. This will be fueled by south to
southwest flow reinforcing moisture levels, with PW between 1.6" and
1.8", which is around 120% of normal. NAEFS percentiles continue to
indicate 850 mb temperatures above the 90th percentile Sunday
through Tuesday of next week for much of the state. NBM guidance
generally shows temperatures in the upper 90s for this period, with
30-40 percent probabilities of greater than 98 degrees starting on
Sunday, and a larger area of 40-50 percent probabilities on Monday.
The caveat here will be how much moisture, cloud cover, and
subsequent convection will have on achievable temperatures. NBM PoPs
are increased across most of the Midlands and CSRA to slight
chance/low end chance on Sunday, then to the chance-likely category
by Monday and Tuesday. While much of this should be diurnally
driven, there is an upper trough/frontal boundary progged to pass
through late Sunday into Monday which may bring additional dynamics
to support more organized convective if the timing works out.
Additional details to come.

More information on the potential for moderate to major heat risk
late in the forecast period can be found at
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR Conditions Expected through the Period....

VFR conditions continue at the terminals tonight with passing high
clouds coming in from the north and a few low clouds arriving from
the east. Easterly flow continues and will likely persist through
the TAF period. A moderate low-level jet should prevent fog
development tonight. Winds should increase after daybreak and may be
gusty at times, especially this afternoon. Dry conditions are likely
to continue at all terminals with passing scattered cumulus. Winds
should gradually diminish tonight under clear skies.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief restrictions possible in
isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms Friday
through Sunday.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$