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258
FXUS62 KCAE 140759
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
359 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry high pressure remains over the area again today. A weak
front moves in from the north Saturday, with gradually
increasing moisture into early next week with high pressure off
the mid Atlantic Coast. Mainly expect isolated afternoon and
evening convection possible through the middle of next week.
High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s
throughout much of the forecast period.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Upper trough axis has moved east of the forecast area while an
upper ridge is building to our west. At the surface, high
pressure remains in control over the eastern seaboard. Expect
the upper features to slowly drift eastward through the day and
tonight, putting the forecast area into a northwest flow regime.
The surface high remains in place through the forecast period. A
combination of the surface high and northwest flow aloft will
allow temperatures to rise into the mid 90s. Northwest flow
keeps the area relatively dry, so the heat index values will be
roughly the same as the air temperatures. That said, it`ll be
important to take breaks and hydrate if spending time outside,
especially this afternoon. A weak cold front over the Great
Lakes begins moving south toward the region overnight, bringing
some increased moisture ahead of it though the area is expected
to remain rain free. As a result, lows overnight are forecast
to be in the low 70s across the region.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Weak frontal boundary will be crossing the forecast area
Saturday with the upper level ridge building over the MS Valley.
The main concern will remain temperatures and heat index values
with temperatures rising into the mid and upper 90s for most of
the area with heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s.
Continue to strongly encourage those that will be outdoors to
take frequent breaks and hydrate well. Instability will be
moderate to strong Saturday afternoon however with northeasterly
winds pushing some drier air in at the surface and northwesterly
low level winds providing some downsloping potential for
convection will be confined to the eastern Midlands and southern
CSRA where some Atlantic moisture may intrude.

On Sunday the upper level ridge axis will be over the area with
high pressure moving off the New England coast. This will begin
strengthening easterly flow however with a weak pressure
gradient keeping winds less than 10 mph moisture advection will
be slow. Instability will again be moderate however with the
lack of a trigger mechanism and weak winds aloft expect
convection to be diurnal in nature with the highest chance in
the southern Midlands and CSRA where the best moisture will
reside. With increasing moisture and clouds afternoon high
temperatures will range from around 90 along the NC border to
the mid 90s in the CSRA. Heat index values from the central
Midlands through the CSRA will again be in the mid 90s to around
100 so although a bit cooler those that will be outdoors are
encouraged to take frequent breaks and hydrate well.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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With the upper level pattern from the eastern Pacific through
the western Atlantic remaining highly amplified pattern
progression will be slow to occur. This will keep the upper
level ridge over the eastern US through the long term. The
surface high pressure will become centered off the New England
coast which will slowly increase easterly to southeasterly flow
across the area. The potential for convection Monday and Tuesday
is too low to mention as mid level lapse rates will be weak and
model soundings show a weak subsidence inversion over the
region. The inversion weakens Wednesday and Thursday with
chances of diurnal showers and thunderstorms returning to the
area. High temperatures will remain near to slightly above
normal in the low 90s.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR expected through the TAF period.

Clear skies are being noted over much of the region, but some
low level clouds are developing near the coast. These clouds are
expected to spread westward, but don`t anticipate them to reach
our local terminals. There is a small chance the low clouds
reach OGB, so have kept a SCT010 group to account for this
possibility. Through daytime hours, expect fair weather cumulus
to develop and dissipate after peak heating. Winds are expected
to increase from the north from 5-8 kts during the daytime
hours before become light to calm after 00z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant
restrictions although isolated to scattered afternoon showers
or thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$