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259
FXUS62 KCAE 170012
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
812 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure, drier conditions, and slightly above normal
temperatures are then expected through mid-week. Unsettled
conditions are possible by late in the week into next weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Expect scattered convection into the evening again. Convection
which began along the sea breeze has pushed inland, sparking
additional showers and thunderstorms as outflow boundaries
collide. Ridging over the area has led to warm air aloft, which
will limit the threat of severe weather. However, PWAT values
around 1.6 inches and an inverted V sounding will support some
localized downburst winds likely below severe thresholds.

Patchy fog may be possible late tonight, especially in areas
that get rainfall. Much of tonight will be partly cloudy, but
towards morning some stratus is expected. Overnight lows remain
near 70.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure aloft builds over the Carolinas on Monday and then
expands northward to the Mid Atlantic States and New England Tuesday
through Wednesday. This H5 high center shunts the best moisture to
the west of the region with precipitable water levels decreasing to
around one inch. This should lead to dry weather conditions and near
normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast for the second
half of this week. The ensembles bring an inverted trough into the
Southeast U.S. Thursday through Thursday Night. The ensembles also
shift an H5 high pressure system southward in response to a
strengthening polar jet stream along the Canadian border near the
Great Lakes and New England. The ensembles vary on whether the H5
upper high center is directly over the Carolinas or offshore.

If the inverted trough moves onshore closer to the Midlands and
CSRA, the region would see a significant increase in moisture and
diurnal convective activity. Otherwise, if the H5 high centers
itself over the Carolinas, it should limit such convection. The
ensembles show a wide range on temperatures from Thursday
through next weekend which is indicative of model uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Widely scattered showers diminishing early this
evening...focused near the AGS/DNL terminals. Restrictions
possible late tonight/around 12z in stratus.

A pressure ridge centered off the Mid Atlantic coast extends
southwest into the Carolinas. A persistent east-southeast low-
level moisture transport will continue overnight into Monday.
Model guidance including the lamp, HRRR and NBM support stratus
focused especially near the AGS/DNL terminals toward morning.
Moderate confidence for at least a period of MVFR strato-
cumulus at those sites with IFR possible toward 12z. Confidence
is lower at other terminals for restrictions, so kept VFR for
now at CAE/CUB and OGB. Low clouds should mix out by 15z and
expect scattered to broken cumulus into the afternoon with
southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Capping appears stronger Monday
as upper ridge settles over the area. Moisture decreases by late
in the afternoon, so showers not expected at this time Monday
afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant
restrictions.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$