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396
FXUS62 KCAE 050820
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
420 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak upper disturbance will move into the region today
supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms today. A cold
front will move across the Southeast Thursday increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Drier air follows the front late
this week into the weekend. Another cold front possible early
next week, with rain potential increasing ahead of it late in
the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Some lingering showers persist across the forecast area early
this morning aided by some weak shortwave energy. WV imagery and
500mb analysis reveal a stronger shortwave slowly moving
through the TN Valley which will be the feature of interest
today.

Little overall change in the air mass from yesterday although
PWATs are currently around 1.7-1.8 inches with surface high
pressure centered offshore with southwesterly flow from the
surface up through around 500mb. Weak warm and moist advection
continues over the region today ahead of the approaching
shortwave energy as the atmosphere destabilizes through the
afternoon with SBCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg. PWAT values
are forecast to rise to just below 2 inches which will support a
heavy rain threat especially within a continued weakly sheared
environment. Hi-res guidance shows convection initiated around
17z-19z and coverage is expected to be better than Tuesday aided
by the shortwave energy moving in from the west. Went with
higher pops into the low likely range late afternoon across the
region. Forecast soundings exhibit a moist adiabatic look with
the high atmospheric moisture and not unexpectedly, DCAPE values
are modest around 400-500 J/kg but given the isolated severe
storms from Tuesday cannot rule out isolated pulse severe once
again today with damaging winds as the primary threat. Localized
flooding also possible where storms train and in urban areas.
Temperatures are again expected to rise into the mid and upper
80s to around 90 degrees for highs today.

Convection may linger into the overnight hours as shortwave
energy moves through the region but should wane after midnight
with the noctural stabilization of the atmosphere. Low
temperatures expected to be in the upper 60s to around 70
degrees.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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To start off the period, a cold front will still be located well
west of the forecast area. Rainfall is expected to be very
isolated early Thursday morning, but as the day progresses a
strong upper shortwave trough will progress eastward towards
the area. In addition, the surface cold front will also be
pushing through the central Appalachians and then east of the
mountains by Thursday evening. Eventually this cold front will
move through the cwa late Thursday night. Pwat values remain
relatively high through the day. Model soundings seem to
indicate that there will be slightly less instability than
previous days, and the best coverage may occur just ahead of the
cold front later in the afternoon/evening. There will be an
inverted-v temperature profile, which would indicate some wind
potential. Overall severe threat still appears low, but could
see a few sub-severe wind gusts and brief periods of heavy rain
in any stronger storms that move through. Rain chances continue
early Thursday night until the main cold front begins pushing
drier air into the area. Temperatures will be dependent on the
amount of cloud cover by the afternoon. NBM generally gives
upper 80s to lower 90s, and did not stray much from those
numbers. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Drier air moves in behind the front early Friday morning. This
dry air will continue through Saturday night as high pressure
will be in control. Latest blends begin to bring isolated
showers back for Sunday and Monday ahead of another approaching
cold front. Rain chances may linger into Tuesday depending on
the speed of the front. Blend keeps slight chance to chance pops
into Tuesday. Temperatures continue slightly above normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected over the 24 hr forecast
period outside of showers or thunderstorms and possible morning
stratus.

Diminishing showers continue to slowly move through the region
early this morning and may impact the terminals but not
expecting restrictions in rainfall as it remains light. Cigs
also remain VFR in the 5kft to 12kft range. Some stratus already
developing in the Upstate and north GA with NBM and LAMP
guidance suggesting this stratus will build eastward but
uncertain if it will make it to the terminals or not. Decided to
include a tempo for MVFR cigs around 1500 ft from 09z-13z with
possible IFR vsbys in fog at AGS where recent rain may enhance
fog threat, despite a 20 knot low level jet.

Otherwise, expect another day similar to yesterday with
afternoon scattered convection developing across the region with
southwesterly winds picking up to around 7 to 10 knots and
widespread cumulus clouds prior to convective initiation.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms through Friday with intermittent
CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$