-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
549
FXUS64 KEPZ 230551
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1151 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Temperatures will continue to warm for the next several days with
triple digit heat returning Sunday and continuing into next week.
The moisture that arrived a couple of days ago will linger across
the region, setting the stage for monsoonal type showers and
thunderstorms on a daily basis.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The cooler conditions of the past few days are about to disappear
as a ridge aloft moves back over the region and strengthens.
Currently the ridge remains centered over the southeastern United
States, but has already spread far enough west in our direction to
push our deep moisture plume into Arizona and far western New
Mexico. As such, the better chances for showers and storms for the
balance of the weekend looks to be across our western zones as
well as over the higher terrain of the Gila and Sacramento Mtns.
However, we can`t completely rule out an isolated shower or storm
elsewhere as there is still a decent amount of moisture in place
as evidenced by a PW value of 1.15" with this mornings EPZ
sounding.

As the upper ridge continues to build overhead the next few days,
the PW values will drop to a little below one inch, but will still
be a solid 1/4 inch above what is normal for this time of year.
As such we will likely see monsoon type showers and thunderstorms
daily with the mountains being favored early in the afternoon
followed by scattered lowland storms later in the day. Meanwhile
the ridge will be responsible for another heat wave across the
region. Lowland temps will likely return to the triple digits
Sunday and should peak Tuesday and Wednesday near Heat Advisory
levels (105+).The good news is that a weak trough will come our
way late next week, which should weaken the ridge a bit and allow
for somewhat cooler daytime temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW110/250 but with cumulus
coverage expected to increase again tomorrow afternoon. An outflow
has shifted winds to the north with some gustiness. These winds will
subside gradually over the next 1-3 hours. Otherwise winds will be
light and variable with speeds mostly under 10 knots. SHRA or TSRA
cannot be entirely ruled out at TCS for the next few hours as well,
but chances are too low to mention. TSRA/SHRA chances return to the
area tomorrow afternoon and evening though mainly TCS and DMN have a
slight chance for direct impacts. All sites may see wind shifts from
outflows.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Expect low fire weather concerns over the next seven days. Upper
level high pressure will build across the region this weekend and
that will warm our temperatures and keep our surface winds pretty
light. Despite the ridge aloft, we will continue to see a chance
for afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day, especially in
area mountains. Our hottest days look to be Tuesday and Wednesday
of next week. Additional moisture, clouds and cooler temperatures
will spread across the area toward the end of next week. Min RH`s
in the lowlands will range from 15 to 25% and in the mountains
the min RH`s will range from 25 to 40%. Ventilation rates over the
next couple of days will range from good to very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  78 102  80 105 /  10  10  10  20
Sierra Blanca            67  94  69  97 /  10  10  10  10
Las Cruces               72 100  74 102 /  10  10  10  20
Alamogordo               68  95  69  99 /  20  20  10  20
Cloudcroft               52  72  53  75 /  20  30  10  30
Truth or Consequences    72  96  73  98 /  30  30  20  40
Silver City              67  90  67  92 /  40  40  30  60
Deming                   71 100  72 102 /  10  20  20  40
Lordsburg                71  98  72  99 /  20  40  30  60
West El Paso Metro       76  99  78 101 /  10  10  10  20
Dell City                68  98  70 101 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Hancock             70 101  72 103 /  10  10  10  10
Loma Linda               68  93  71  95 /  10  10  10  20
Fabens                   73 101  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             71  97  73 100 /  10  10  20  20
White Sands HQ           78  97  79 100 /  10  10  10  20
Jornada Range            68  97  70 100 /  10  20  10  20
Hatch                    69 100  71 102 /  20  20  20  30
Columbus                 73  99  75 101 /  10  10  30  30
Orogrande                71  96  72  98 /  10  10  10  20
Mayhill                  55  84  57  86 /  20  30  10  30
Mescalero                55  82  56  86 /  20  40  10  30
Timberon                 54  81  55  84 /  10  30  10  30
Winston                  60  87  61  88 /  40  50  30  70
Hillsboro                68  93  70  95 /  30  40  20  50
Spaceport                65  95  67  98 /  20  20  20  30
Lake Roberts             61  89  63  91 /  40  50  30  70
Hurley                   65  94  66  95 /  30  30  30  50
Cliff                    65  98  66 100 /  30  40  20  60
Mule Creek               68  91  70  92 /  30  50  20  70
Faywood                  67  92  69  95 /  20  30  20  50
Animas                   68  98  70  98 /  20  40  40  60
Hachita                  69  97  70  98 /  10  30  30  50
Antelope Wells           68  96  70  97 /  20  50  50  70
Cloverdale               66  91  67  91 /  20  60  50  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
TX...None.
NM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice