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FXUS62 KFFC 251447
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1047 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024



...Morning Update...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Thunderstorms are currently moving through the ATL metro with a
few storms having frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty
winds. Storms should move out over the next few hours. Will
continue to monitor the Southern CWA for convection potential this
afternoon and evening. Currently conditions South of Macon have
ample sun, so anticipating destabilization which could be tapped
into by this morning`s thunderstorm outflow.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 454 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Very diffluent flow aloft for the short term as the southeast is
caught on the periphery of a subtropical ridge and another storm
system moving through the Great Plains. Copious moisture remains in
place with PWATs of 1.3-1.4" in place across the CWA. Convection
tonight has been firing to the west and north of Georgia along a
stalled boundary from previous storm system to impact Midwest and
southern Great Plains. These storms will be very impactful to how
convection today plays out. So far, more organized cold pool/MCS has
yet to materialize out of this as some guidance had depicted, which
decreases our chances of seeing organized linear system move through
today. This means that convection may come from a few other sources
today - any outflow that moves into northern GA and provides a
source of lift (especially if something more organized does
materialize), any mesoscale MCV/vortmax features from ongoing
convection that advect in, and the already established theta-e
gradient across the CWA from yesterday`s storms and continued WAA
today.

Thinking we will see scattered afternoon thunderstorms develop and
push to the east/southeast today from north GA down into central GA.
Even with high level cloud cover we should warm up plenty this
afternoon with highs in the upper 80s with even some 90s down in
central Georgia. Forecast soundings once again show relatively moist
upper levels which limits lapse rates a bit, but given how warm and
moist surface gets we still manage 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE.
Hodographs are pretty straight, and Effective Shear is around 30
kts. Primary threats again will be an isolated severe storm across
the area capable of quarter sized hail and damaging wind gusts.
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) is in effect.

Sunday during the day is looking relatively dry, though that may
change as we move into the evening hours, which is where the long
term picks up. It may be one of the hottest days of the year so far,
with 90s potentially extending all the way up into the metro.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 454 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Cold front still on schedule for early next week.

The extended begins with the last shortwave moving out of the area
and just ahead of the approaching cold front. The models are once
again in good agreement with just slight differences in timing. Both
the GFS and ECMWF show the next frontal boundary moving SE out of
the Mid MS river valley late Sunday night and pushing into NW GA
right around daybreak Monday. As it moves SE through the state
Monday it is expected to weaken fairly substantially and stalling
somewhere near the GA/FL border by Tue afternoon. As this front
moves through Instability indices increase a bit and we will see
High Temps Monday in the 80s and 90s across the state. This will
create an environment conducive to  showers and thunderstorms with
some isolated severe storms especially along or just ahead of the
frontal boundary.  A drier airmass is expected to move into the
region Tue/Wed behind the exiting frontal boundary with precip
chances diminishing through the end of the week. Surface high
pressure builds Southeastward from the Western great lake states
with slightly cooler temps expected Wed though Fri.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR outside precip, line of tsra in Northeast AL with sct ra across
Northwest GA and far north metro. Ltg should stay further north
ahead of line and within line. Challenge will be if line holds
into metro, if it does will likely dive southward. MVFR to IFR
conditions possible in tsra, though this should remain brief. Left
vcsh after line for potential stratiform precip. Afternoon sct
tsra possible, but dependent on morning convection. Otherwise
winds SW at 5 to 10 kts. Potential MVFR to IFR overnight

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium convection timing and intensity this morning.
Low convection timing and intensity this afternoon.
Medium Cigs overnight.
High all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  90  70  87 /  20  20  20  50
Atlanta         68  91  71  87 /  20  20  20  60
Blairsville     62  83  65  80 /  20  20  40  80
Cartersville    66  90  70  87 /  20  20  30  60
Columbus        70  91  72  90 /  20  10   0  40
Gainesville     68  89  70  85 /  20  20  30  70
Macon           68  92  71  90 /  20  10   0  40
Rome            66  90  70  87 /  20  20  50  60
Peachtree City  67  91  70  87 /  20  20  10  50
Vidalia         70  93  72  93 /  40  20   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SM