Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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910 FXUS63 KFGF 162059 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 359 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- After a round showers Monday morning in southeastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota, stronger thunderstorms will develop over the area Monday evening and continue into the overnight. Primary threats will be heavy rainfall bringing flash flooding potential and hail up to golf ball sized, but some winds up to 60 mph will be possible. - Thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday, with heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible, along with large hail and damaging winds.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...Synopsis... Upper low lifting into Manitoba is helping push out surface trough/frontal boundary out our eastern CWA border, with most of the winds already shifted to the west although some upper 60/low 70s dew points are lingering. The towering cumulus still has not completely cleared our far eastern counties, but should be out of the woods shortly for surface based convection in our east. Could see a few sprinkles in our far south later this evening from SD that CAMs are not catching onto, but impacts will be very minor. Later tonight there will be a fairly vigorous shortwave moving from SD/Neb into WI. The model runs have been very inconsistant with the precipitation set off by this shortwave. Previous model runs, CAMs and large scale models alike, had heavy QPF over our southern counties, but now are more over southern MN. We do get some of the precipitation in our far south by tomorrow morning, but not as much as previous forecasts. This sets up more favorable conditions for late Monday into Monday night, with a warm front lifting north into our CWA and a shortwave coming from the High Plains into southeastern ND. CAPE will be elevated at 1500-2000 J/kg and some 50 kts of deep layer bulk shear, so hail up to golf balls and even some gusts up to 60 mph are part of the impacts. Of greater importance will be heavy rain as with the boundary lining up with the upper flow, storms will be reforming on top of each other. The main shortwave will continue into North Dakota but the boundary will not move too much until late in the day on Tuesday. Thus, the chance for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will continue throughout the day on Tuesday. Risk of flash flooding is high. After a bit of a break on Wednesday with high pressure, the southwesterly flow aloft continues, with signs in the ensembles of another boundary lifting into the area on Friday. The trough moves through Saturday before heading out into Great Lakes for Sunday. Details, especially for severe impacts and heavy rainfall, are uncertain at this point, but confidence in the active pattern continuing is high.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Some lingering MVFR ceilings at KFAR and the MN airports, but should become VFR as winds shift to the west behind a frontal boundary later this afternoon with gusts to around 20 to 25 kts. Some convection possible around KBJI, but think that impacts will quickly move off to the east of our forecast area this afternoon. Winds will drop off and become more southwesterly this evening, then become light and variable overnight. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006-007-014- 015. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...JR