-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
910
FXUS63 KFGF 162059
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
359 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Changed Discussion --
- After a round showers Monday morning in southeastern North
  Dakota and west central Minnesota, stronger thunderstorms will
  develop over the area Monday evening and continue into the
  overnight. Primary threats will be heavy rainfall bringing
  flash flooding potential and hail up to golf ball sized, but
  some winds up to 60 mph will be possible.

- Thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday, with heavy rainfall
  and flash flooding possible, along with large hail and
  damaging winds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...Synopsis...

Upper low lifting into Manitoba is helping push out surface
trough/frontal boundary out our eastern CWA border, with most of
the winds already shifted to the west although some upper 60/low
70s dew points are lingering. The towering cumulus still has not
completely cleared our far eastern counties, but should be out
of the woods shortly for surface based convection in our east.
Could see a few sprinkles in our far south later this evening
from SD that CAMs are not catching onto, but impacts will be
very minor.

Later tonight there will be a fairly vigorous shortwave moving
from SD/Neb into WI. The model runs have been very inconsistant
with the precipitation set off by this shortwave. Previous model
runs, CAMs and large scale models alike, had heavy QPF over our
southern counties, but now are more over southern MN. We do get
some of the precipitation in our far south by tomorrow morning,
but not as much as previous forecasts. This sets up more
favorable conditions for late Monday into Monday night, with
a warm front lifting north into our CWA and a shortwave coming
from the High Plains into southeastern ND. CAPE will be elevated
at 1500-2000 J/kg and some 50 kts of deep layer bulk shear, so
hail up to golf balls and even some gusts up to 60 mph are part
of the impacts. Of greater importance will be heavy rain as with
the boundary lining up with the upper flow, storms will be
reforming on top of each other. The main shortwave will continue
into North Dakota but the boundary will not move too much until
late in the day on Tuesday. Thus, the chance for thunderstorms
and heavy rainfall will continue throughout the day on Tuesday.
Risk of flash flooding is high.

After a bit of a break on Wednesday with high pressure, the
southwesterly flow aloft continues, with signs in the ensembles
of another boundary lifting into the area on Friday. The trough
moves through Saturday before heading out into Great Lakes for
Sunday. Details, especially for severe impacts and heavy
rainfall, are uncertain at this point, but confidence in the
active pattern continuing is high.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Some lingering MVFR ceilings at KFAR and the MN airports, but
should become VFR as winds shift to the west behind a frontal
boundary later this afternoon with gusts to around 20 to 25
kts. Some convection possible around KBJI, but think that
impacts will quickly move off to the east of our forecast area
this afternoon. Winds will drop off and become more
southwesterly this evening, then become light and variable
overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006-007-014-
     015.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR