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679
FXUS65 KGJT 110546
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1146 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be a slight chance for afternoon showers and
  storms each afternoon for the next few days.

- Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal through mid
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 823 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

The Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire at 8 PM as winds
continue to subside as we approach sunset. Fires could remain
active overnight as humidity will be very slow to recover in
this dry airmass that has moved in. Smoke and air quality is
likely to become more of a widespread concern overnight as
terrain driven flow begins to disperse the smoke plumes.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

The shortwave trough that moved through the region this morning
brought moisture into the area. This has resulted in showers and
storms developing over the high terrain. The wave has also pushed a
cold front in from the north, which is another focus for showers and
storms. That front will move southward through the area this
afternoon and evening. Although by sunset most of the showers should
dissipate. The wave and front have caused winds to increase
especially along and south of the front. Low levels remain hot
and dry so critical fire weather is expected through sunset.
Lightning last night has sparked several wildfires so conditions
are in place for those to potentially spread. Tomorrow the
pressure gradient relaxes, which will allow the winds to
decrease. Not all of the moisture gets washed out so there will
be enough for another round of afternoon showers and storms on
the higher terrain. These showers will be capable of gusty winds
with minimal rainfall. The cold front looks to cool things down
by a few degrees, but it is still hot and dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Expect a series of dry, hot days with convection over the high
terrain each afternoon. Through the long term PWATs fluctuate
around normal. Any moisture advection through Thursday looks to
be weak and primarily focused on along the Divide and over the
San Juans. The highest PoPs are in the San Juan mountains each
afternoon. After Sunday differences in PWATs emerge between
ensembles, with the GFS Ens keeping more moisture in the region
than the ECMWF Ens, although both seem to suggest the
possibility for increased moisture advection towards the end of
the long term. The magnitude of the moisture advection will
depend on where high pressure sets up relative to our CWA, but
current forecasts suggest an increase in precipitation for our
southern mountains on Wednesday and Thursday.

Our CWA will remain hot and dry through the long term. Expect high
temperatures to be 5 to 10 degrees above average through
midweek. Minimum relative humidity values are generally
anticipated to fall below 15% for all but the highest terrain
over the weekend. As moisture increases mid next week so should
minimum relative humidity values, but only by a few percent.
Despite the low relative humidity in the forecast, critical fire
weather conditions are expected to be localized as wind gusts
should stay below thresholds for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions will continue tonight with light terrain driven
winds at the terminals. Expecting some wildfire smoke to impact
terminals adjacent to fires as smoke settles in valleys
overnight. Dropped visibilities at KMTJ and KGJT to account for
accumulating smoke early this morning. Winds will mix up smoke
mid morning and visibilities will improve slightly. Skies remain
mostly clear Friday with an isolated shower and/or thunderstorm
possible up against the Continental Divide. Included PROB30 in
KASE, KEGE, KGUC, and KHDN to account for afternoon terrain
based thunderstorms. Winds will gust to around 20 mph across the
region Friday afternoon then subside near sunset.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Wind gusts of 25-35 mph will be common across the area through
about sunset before gradually decreasing. Winds decrease on Friday
through the weekend although temperatures stay above normal.
The chance of wetting rain in the coming days is low. Additional
lightning starts will be a concern with the continuation of warm
and dry conditions and a chance for showers and storms each
afternoon into next week.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT