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FXUS61 KILN 041342
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
942 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
South flow over the Ohio Valley will be found ahead of a cold
front that crosses late Wednesday, along with increasing
potential for showers and thunderstorms. Westerly flow behind
the front will prevail through the first half of the weekend
until a southern system interacts with a surface low near Lake
Erie on Sunday, resulting in the next significant weather
system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Southerly flow at the surface topped by southwest flow will
bring some warmer and unstable air to the CWA. Showers and some
thunderstorms are progged to move from the southwest into
Northern Kentucky and the Cincy metro area this afternoon and
early evening as mid level energy aids any thunderstorm
development here. Timing is uncertain since ongoing showers are
still relatively distant and additional convection will need to
develop before it begins in our area.

Highs will top out in the mid-upper 80s for most locations,
possibly a bit cooler in and south of metro Cincy given
increased potential for rain and cooling effect of cloud cover
ahead of it.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The loss of insolation and direct daytime heating removes any
instability in the evening with showers decreasing in coverage
and storms also decreasing in intensity. Lower end pops are
necessary overnight as models do not have a consensus on how
this time frame evolves with regards to precip chances/timing.

Later overnight closer to daybreak, more components come
together to make showers and some thunderstorms work in from the
west. Afternoon instability is expected to be found closer to
northern/northeast CWA with mid level CAPE values approaching
1000 J/kg, interacting with a high moisture low level
environment and enough shear to see any individual cells that
develop maintain themselves for a longer period of time. These
showers and thunderstorms will become prevalent in the late
morning and afternoon.

Overnight lows in the upper 60s with moist air on southerly wind
and passing cloud cover. Wednesday`s highs will be muted given
the prevailing rainfall and be within a degree or two of 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level shortwave and associated cold front to pivot east
thru the region Wednesday evening. Warm and moist airmass ahead
of this front will support the development of with moderate
instability. This instability combined with deep layer shear
around 30 kts has the potential to support a few strong to
severe storms into the early evening. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat. As the front shifts to the east the potential
for precipitation will come to a temporary end.

Elongated mid level low to settle into the Great Lakes for the
end of the week. Have slight chance to chance pops Thursday and
Friday mainly across the northeast. Some model solution spread
is seen in the exact details but a little better consensus is
observed with energy swinging back westward as the low settles a
little south into the region this weekend into early next week.
Have slight chance for pcpn Saturday with a better chance
Sunday into Monday. Precipitation chances will need to be
increased Monday if the current trends continue with future
runs.

Temperatures will be near normal Thursday with highs in the
upper 70s to the lower 80s. Readings look to trend below normal
by Friday with highs ranging from the lower 70s to the mid 70s
and then near normal Saturday and Sunday when readings are
expected to top out between 75 and 80.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will be found through the morning hours, with a
lighter rain at onset and some scattered showers working in
from the southwest near or a little after 18Z at CVG/LUK. The
lighter precip closer to onset time is expected to fall from an
AS deck, with a bit of a higher precip rate noted from 21Z-00Z.
A vsby restriction and lower yet still vfr cig is forecast
during this time frame. LIs of -4 and CAPE 1500+ J/kg had
enough presence for thunderstorms to be represented in a tempo
group at CVG/LUK late today.

Some of these cells could maintain for a few hours into the
evening but the majority of models are noting for them to die
out relatively quickly as the more active area to the west
begins to reach western TAF sites towards daybreak. Models still
have a wide range of shower placement, but there`s more of a
consensus that CVG should have a VCSH in the forecast for early
Wednesday.

South winds will pick up a little this afternoon and generally
remain south through the remainder of the forecast. Afternoon
winds should remain under 10kt, but a few intermittent obs could
push 12kt. This would be more likely under any showers falling
from the mid deck that may get entrained by the drier air it
would be falling through.

Probability for thunderstorms are still present for early Wed,
but enough models show little if any activity for me to be
fairly confident to keep them out of the forecast. This is
particularly true given this would be at the end of the TAF
period where best practice TS forecasts are to leave out unless
it has strong confidence and support from numerous models.

A lot will be determined as the day progresses with regards to
occurrence/placement of showers later today and potential of
more overnight/early Wed.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Wednesday with
IFR ceilings possible. Thunderstorms possible Wednesday into
Wednesday evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Franks