-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
574
FXUS61 KILN 111741
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
141 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains through tonight, along with the cooler
and lower humidity air mass. This is replaced by much warmer
air as the high pressure shifts to the east through midweek. A
cold front approaches the region Thursday night, providing the
next chance for thunderstorms. More extreme heat may arrive
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Cu will continue across the region through the afternoon and
into the evening hours. In addition there will be some cirrus as
well. Went on the warm side of guidance for today with dry
airmass in place.  Winds will be light and variable.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will have shifted to the east over the Mid-
Atlantic by Tuesday night. Light southwesterly flow will provide
a small bump in overall surface moisture and temperatures
Wednesday afternoon with temperatures a few degrees above
normal. Despite the small increase, insufficient low-level
moisture means that the area will still be devoid any rainfall,
continuing the recent dry pattern. The overall weather picture
will remain quiet through Wednesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A pair of mid level short waves will move east southeast across
the southern Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. This will help
push a weak cold front southeast across our area Thursday night
into Friday. Decent instability is forecast to develop to our
west/northwest ahead of the front through the day on Thursday,
but this better instability ahead of the front generally weakens
as it moves into our area Thursday evening/night. Nonetheless,
will likely still see the potential for some showers and
thunderstorms to move into mainly our northern areas Thursday
night and will continue with some lower chance pops. Some
marginal deep layer shear will develop into our northwest
through Thursday evening so it will be tough to rule our a few
stronger storms Thursday evening across our northwest if we are
able to get a little better instability into our area. Highs on
Thursday will be in the 85 to 90 degree range.

Surface high pressure will build across the southern Great
Lakes and upper Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday leading to
mainly dry conditions. Temperatures will remain above normal
with highs both days in the mid to upper 80s. Mid and upper
level ridging will then build in across the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys Sunday into Monday with increasing heights across the
region. This will lead to a continued warming trend with highs
on Sunday into the low to possibly mid 90s and highs on Monday
in the mid 90s. Dewpoints are also forecast to slowly creep up
through early next weak which will lead to heat indices in the
low to mid 90s on Sunday afternoon and in the 95 to 100 degree
range Monday afternoon. It will also be tough to rule up a late
afternoon/evening pop up thunderstorm on Monday given the
increasing moisture/instability.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions will start out the TAF period. Cu have developed
across the region. In addition there will be some mid and high
clouds across the TAF sites at times through the TAF period.
River valley fog is expected to develop tonight. In addition
some brief vsby reductions will be possible at KILN overnight.
Winds will be light and less than 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Friday.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...