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115
FXUS65 KPUB 191831
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1231 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler today!

- Scattered showers and storms, a few strong along the NM border
  this afternoon/evening.

- Uptick in thunderstorms over the mountains Thursday and Friday with
  increasing moisture and lift ahead of a passing upper trough.

- The heat returns across southern Colorado with highs above the
  century mark across the Plains by early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Made some quick adjustments to temperatures as clouds have held
in strong across the southeast plains and temperatures have been
struggling to warm into the lower 60s. Thunderstorms continue
across the southeast corner where upglide over the front has
released some elevated instability. Still watching western
portions of Las Animas county where we are starting to see some
cloud breaks. For now think stronger convection will hug the
higher terrain of the Sangres and diminish as they push
northeast off the mountains into the cooler more stable airmass.
However trends will continue to be monitored. -KT
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Currently...

A cooler and moister airmass has moved in over the plains this AM.
Lots of mid/lower level clouds cover the eastern plains at 3 AM. The
front is south of the region attm, and a band of strong storms was
noted just south of the fcst area in NM and OK as I write. Over the
last hour or so, showers have begun to break out over the plains,
with some light steady rain over parts of Baca county. West of the
Sangres, it was clear. Some cooler air made it over into the San
Luis Valley (SLV) earlier as they had some gusty east winds in the
valley early this evening.

Today...

Sharply cooler today. Max temps only expected to be in the 60s
across the lower elevations of the Pikes Peak region with 70s over
the rest of the plains! These temps are 15 to 20F below normal for
this time of the year. In the interior, however, temps will remain
warm with temps similar to yesterday. As for precip, the overall
best chance of showers and storms today will be later this afternoon
with storms developing over the southern Sangres and then pushing
east late today. Over the rest of the plains, we will see mainly
mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and a few -TSRAs. The
east slopes of the mtns and wet mtn valley will likely see some
instability today and expect scattered storms this area during the
afternoon.

Given the boundary is just south of the area, the best qpf will be
noted along the CO/NM border generally east of the S Sangres.

One region which will see less precip today will be the CONTDVD
region as much drier air is noted over this area.

Tonight...

We will likely see a good chance of scattered showers and storm push
east off the mtns and across the plains this evening into the
nighttime hours, with the brunt of the activity ending by midnight.
Given the general lack of instability, storms are not expected to be
too strong. The only exception to this will be down along the NM and
OK border where better instability will be realized early in the
period and a few strong/marginally severe storms will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Thursday-Friday...Modest south to southwest flow aloft is progged
across the region through the end of the work week, as a broad upper
trough across the West Coast on Thursday, translates across the Rockies
through Friday night. Flow aloft allows for an influx of subtropical
moisture to spread into the region, leading to an increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms, especially along and west of the Continental
Divide, where the best moisture is expected to be in place. Increasing
uvv ahead of the passing trough, combined with good orographic flow,
could keep showers and storms ongoing over the ContDvd Thursday night,
with the best coverage of storms expected over and near the higher
terrain once again through the day Friday into Friday night. Latest
models continue to suggest enough cape and shear, especially west of
the Front Range, to support a few stronger storms producing hail to
near an inch in diameter and gusty outflow winds, along with enough
subtropical moisture to support locally heavy rainfall, with the latest
Day 2 and Day 3 WPC Excessive rainfall outlooks indicating a marginal
risk across western Colorado on Thursday, with the marginal risk
spreading into south central Colorado on Friday. Temperatures across
southeast Colorado are expected to warm back to at and slightly above
seasonal levels in the 80s to lower 90s through the end of the work
week, with temperatures over and near the higher terrain at to slightly
cooler than seasonal, with expected increased convection.

Saturday-Sunday...Warmer and drier west to northwest flow is expected
across the region through the weekend, with upper level ridging building
back across the southern Rockies. This will allow for temperatures to
warm to above seasonal levels areawide, with enough residual moisture
to support isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and
storms, with the best coverage over and near the higher terrain.

Monday-Tuesday...Southern Rockies upper level ridging builds into the
Central Rockies with warming aloft and H5 heights approaching 595DM
leading to highs returning to well above seasonal levels in the mid
90s to around 105F across the southeast Plains, and mainly in the
70s and 80s across the higher terrain. There could be enough moisture
to support isolated higher based afternoon showers, mainly over the
higher terrain, into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

KALS: VFR conditions are expected through 24 hours, with gusty south-
southwest winds lasting through most of the day. Some isolated
showers and storms will form over the nearby terrain later this
afternoon, with some gusty outflow being possible.

KCOS and KPUB: Low ceilings will persist through the forecast
period, largely low-end MVFR but occasionally drifting down to IFR
conditions. Showers and fog will be off and on through the period as
well, with periods of lowered visibility. Winds will be largely from
the southeast, near or under 10 knots.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO