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141
FXUS66 KSEW 050950
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
250 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A pattern change commences today as upper level
ridging starts to build over the region. This will bring a warming
and drying trend to western Washington for the second half of the
week. The warmest temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday.
A weak shortwave moving across the area on Sunday may bring
slightly cooler temperatures and some showers to the mountains.
Temperatures then look to fall closer to normal by early next
week.
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.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Radar shows some showers
lingering across portions of Snohomish, Skagit, and Whatcom
counties early this morning. Overall, expect shower activity to
continue to decrease through the morning hours today. Upper level
ridging will build across the West today and through the second
half of the week, marking the start of a warming and drying trend
across western Washington. Some areas of patchy fog and low clouds
this morning will lift and scatter by the late morning hours for
a return to some afternoon sunshine. Afternoon highs today will
warm closer to normal and look to top out in the upper 60s to low
70s across the interior and in the low to mid 60s for areas along
the coast.

Upper level ridging will continue to amplify across the West Coast
on Thursday and Friday, allowing for temperatures to continue to
warm a couple degrees each day. High temperatures on Thursday
look to top out in the upper 60s to mid 70s for the majority of
the area. Overnight lows look to warm a few degrees each day as
well and will range in the upper 40s to low 50s area-wide on
Friday. Friday currently looks to be the warmest day of the week,
with afternoon highs looking to top out in the mid 70s to mid 80s
for the majority of the region. Heat risk is generally expected to
remain in the minor category for the majority of western Washington
for now, though could see some isolated spots of moderate heat
risk primarily along the Cascade valleys on Friday - where
temperatures could climb into the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Warm and dry conditions
will continue into Saturday as the upper level ridge axis pushes
further inland. Overnight low temperatures on Saturday will be in
the low to mid 50s across the region, with highs expected to top
out in the upper 70s to low 80s. The coast will be cooler under
increased cloud cover, with highs expected to be in the mid 60s
to mid 70s. Heat risk will be minor on Saturday. A weak shortwave
trough looks to move across the area on Sunday. At this time,
guidance does not indicate much in the way of precipitation
outside of a few showers in the mountains. However, can expect
cloudier conditions and for highs to cool into the low to mid 70s
across the interior and low to mid 60s along the coast. Heading
into next week, ensembles continue to favor troughing over the
northeastern Pacific and ridging over the western US. A few weak
shortwaves may move across western Washington early in the week
for occasional cloud cover and temperatures near to only slightly
above normal. 14
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.AVIATION...
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West-southwest flow will continue with ridging building
northward across the West. VFR cigs for most early this morning with
areas of patchy lower cigs near weakening convergence across Kitsap,
Snohomish, and Skagit Counties. VFR for most through the morning
with the best potential for MVFR/IFR located over PWT/PAE and
perhaps OLM with a slight reduction in vsbys possible. Otherwise,
further clearing expected by midday into the afternoon with a few
high clouds around. Light southerly winds this morning will become
more W/NW this afternoon.

KSEA...SCT/BKN VFR cigs early this morning. MVFR cigs may occur at
times between 10-17z, with a slight chance of IFR cigs (mainly
around 15% probability). Clearing by late morning. Light south winds
this morning will become more N/NW by 20-21Z. JD
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&&

.MARINE...
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Light winds this morning with increasing northerly winds
over the Coastal Waters this afternoon and evening. Winds through
Friday will generally remain north-northwest, increasing each
afternoon, but remaining below SCA threshold. Onshore flow will
increase later Saturday into Saturday night.

Seas of 12 to 15 feet this morning will slowly subside through
tonight with seas below 10 feet by late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Seas will range 5 to 8 feet Thursday through
Saturday before building to near 9 feet late weekend. JD
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&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Grays
     Harbor Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for West
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
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&&

$$