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579
FXUS66 KSTO 240845
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
145 AM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Seasonably warm and periodically breezy weather persists across the
early week period, with a slight cooling trend to near normal from
mid to late week and into the weekend.
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&&

Key Points
- Decreasing areas of Moderate HeatRisk remain in the Valley
  today, with decreasing Moderate HeatRisk on Tuesday and
  primarily Minor HeatRisk Wednesday through Saturday.
- Temperatures cool to near normal by the end of the week, with a
  new warming trend possible late in the weekend.

Short-Term Discussion (Today THROUGH Thursday)...
Clear skies dominate this early morning period over interior
NorCal. Temperatures at midnight were still quite balmy, with the
Valley ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. Still, things should
continue to cool off as we move into the early morning, especially
in areas closer to the Delta where onshore flow will bring cooler
morning conditions. Today, widespread Moderate HeatRisk remains
over much of the area, with highs around the mid 90s to low 100s
expected in the Valley, and 80s to 90s at higher elevations.
Temperatures on Tuesday and through the remainder of the week
continue to cool off slightly as broad troughing moves over the
west coast. Tuesday afternoon and evening also continue to see
some slight chances for isolated thunderstorms along the Sierra
crest south of HWY 50 (about 10-25% probability) due to monsoonal
moisture advection from the south. Storms during this period could
produce gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall, and lightning which
could lead to new fire starts before quickly transitioning
eastward off the crest. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of
the week ahead. High temperatures will be around the high 80s to
mid 90s in the Valley, and 70s to 80s at higher elevations.
Onshore flow will remain throughout the week as well, bringing
breezy to occasionally gusty south to west winds late in the day.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...
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Friday and Saturday temperatures will remain near normal, though
a couple degrees warmer than Thursday as westerly flow develops
over the area. Clusters and ensembles seem in good agreement that
the general pattern will continue to primarily be westerly flow,
with heights increasing late in the weekend and into early next
week. This will result in gradually warming temperatures on Sunday
and into early next week, though how long after Monday these
warmer temperatures will last is still quite uncertain. Overall,
Valley temperatures look like they will trend from the upper 80s
and low to mid 90s on Friday and Saturday to the high 90s and low
100s by Monday.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs. Sfc wind mainly
at or below 12 kts except vcnty of Delta SWly sfc wind up to 20
kts.
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&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$