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116
FXUS62 KTAE 240756
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
356 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
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(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Stout mid-level ridging remains entrenched across the southern parts
of the US. Meanwhile, troughing off the East Coast will help send a
"cold" front our way through the day. This front will act as a focus
for a few showers and thunderstorms developing early this afternoon
across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. As these storms move
generally south to southeastward, they will eventually clash with
the sea breeze along the Emerald Coast, resulting in increasing
coverage in the Florida Panhandle late this afternoon. Fewer storms
are expected farther to the east, but isolated storms cannot be
ruled out. The presence of some mid-level dry air will yield DCAPE
around 900-1100 J/kg, which will result in some strong downbursts in
the stronger storms.

Given the ridge`s influence and 850 mb temperatures around 19-21 C,
high temperatures will soar in the middle 90s to near 100. The
highest temperatures will be across the eastern parts of the area,
but the highest moisture will be over the western areas. This poses
a difficult heat index forecast. Most of our FL counties will see
heat index values climb to 105-110, so have issued a Heat Advisory
for most of the Florida counties outside of the coastal strip from
Jefferson to Dixie County. The highest confidence in reaching this
criteria is in the FL Panhandle. Farther north in AL and GA, heat
index values of 102-107 are expected, just shy of heat advisory
criteria. Either way, dangerous heat is expected. Those working or
playing outside for any length of time should take frequent breaks
in the shade or air conditioning and stay hydrated.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

On Tuesday a weak front may stall out somewhere near our GA/AL
counties, bringing in a slightly drier airmass. Along with some
mid level ridging still remaining overhead, this drier airmass
will allow highs to climb into the 99 to 102 degree range across
most inland areas Tuesday afternoon. Mid 90s are expected closer
to the coast. Max heat indices are forecast in the 104 to 114
degree range, with heat advisory conditions looking likely across
most Florida counties and perhaps into the first row of GA/AL
counties as well. Conditions improve just a bit for Wednesday with
the ridge finally retreating some back to the west, with highs in
the low 90s near the coast and the mid to upper 90s inland. A few
spots may still hit heat advisory criteria, but confidence is
lower on Wednesday.

Scattered showers and storms are expected across the area both
afternoons, with the highest coverage expected generally across
Florida due to the seabreeze and northwesterly steering flow.
Forecast soundings are a bit concerning with the potential for
damaging wind gusts. Forecast DCAPE values are between 1500-1700
J/Kg for a lot of the area along with a pretty large inverted V.
Both days will see the potential for damaging winds with any
storms that develop.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A bit of troughiness continues across the eastern CONUS to start
out the long term period before another ridge tries to push into
the area. While high temps are forecast to start out in the low to
mid 90s on Thursday, they are forecast to creep back up into the
mid to upper 90s for the weekend. Daily showers and storms will
still be possible, however overall coverage may be lower than
currently forecast depending on the strength of the ridge.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. TSRA will
develop across the area between 17z and 22z, and have mentioned
VCTS at all sites. Storms quickly fade after 00z, maybe a bit
later for VLD. Generally W/SW winds around 5-10 kt expected
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Mainly southwesterly winds should hold through today before
teetering between westerly and southwesterly afterwards. Seas will
generally be between 1 to 3 feet, with the 3 foot waves being
favored west of Apalachicola. However, long-period swells will
continue through the period as a disturbance sits off northeast
Mexico. Nightly chances of showers and storms will be possible
over the waters with the highest chances east of Apalachicola.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Transport winds will generally be out of the west to southwest
around 10 to 15 mph each afternoon. This combined with very high
mixing heights will lead to good to high dispersions each afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected each afternoon
across the area. Storms will be capable of producing gusty, erratic
winds and frequent lightning. Outside of storms, dangerous heat is
expected with temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 and heat
index values a few degrees either side of 110.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

No major changes to the forecast as moisture will continue to
infiltrate the region due to. A large trough will sit over the
east, while high pressure retrogrades west. Daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be possible, some of which could
produce heavy rain. Overall, widespread rainfall totals of 1-2
inches is expected over the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee   97  77  98  77 /  50  30  50  20
Panama City   92  79  93  79 /  40  30  40  20
Dothan        95  74 100  75 /  40  10  30  10
Albany        96  74 101  74 /  30  10  30  10
Valdosta      99  76  99  75 /  30  30  50  20
Cross City    96  76  95  75 /  30  10  60  30
Apalachicola  90  80  90  79 /  30  30  40  30
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&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 7 PM EDT /6 PM
     CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-
     115-127.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
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&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...KR