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627
FXUS65 KABQ 101745 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1145 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Widespread showers and storms will favor northern and eastern NM
today. Rainfall rates will generally be light to moderate, but
heavier showers in the afternoon and evening could create localized
flash flooding over recent burn scars and in eastern NM. A few
storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts as well.
Scattered storms are likely in northern NM again on Tuesday, then
drier and hotter weather returns Wednesday. A mix of wet and dry
storms are possible over the high terrain Thursday and moreso
Friday. Critical fire weather conditions are possible across the
west on Friday, although confidence is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Difluent flow aloft caused by the amalgamation of a Pacific low into
a ridge of high pressure has created a messy setup to start the
short term. A wide swath of precip remains across portions of
eastern NM, with an MCV taking shape across the central highlands
this early morning. Its presence will set the stage and prime the
atmosphere for unsettled weather to return this afternoon. The
discombobulated low will reform over northeastern NM this morning,
allowing for large-scale ascent to persist. A very moisture rich
environment will remain behind last night`s activity but also, a
very overworked atmosphere. It would stand to reason that the
northeast would have less potential for severe weather this
afternoon, with the more likely coverage favoring southeastern
portions of the CWA. Cells that do attempt to initiate will have
plenty of unfavorable roadblocks to overcome, with capping likely
amongst cooler temperatures. Instability, while moderate, may not be
lined up with the most favorable shear, and vice versa. Still, if
these mesoscale parameters do manage to align, a few cells with
damaging winds and the potential for large hail will be possible.
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will expand further towards
the Cont Dvd today thanks to the westward push of moisture yesterday
and overnight, though rainfall totals will still likely be meager
west of the RGV. The upper low, with its center newly formed,
will begin tracking east, set to exit NM just after midnight. Dry
air will quickly fall in behind the low`s departure, causing
lingering showers to cease. With heightened soil moisture and
clearing skies, patchy fog may develop late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning but confidence was too low to include it in
the forecast.

High pressure aloft begins to reach its claws up from MX Tuesday,
allowing for temperatures to rebound and impressive drying to take
place. Relative humidity values in the afternoon fall anywhere from
10 to 30 percent compared to Monday`s readings. Daytime highs will
trend 5F to 15F warmer than the previous day`s readings as well as
pressure heights rise back toward 590 dam. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms may develop over the northern mts and their
adjacent lowlands in the afternoon. A storm or two may become strong
but with nominal shear under 15 kts, do not expect enough
organization for updrafts to become severe.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Tuesday`s afternoon convection may send an outflow boundary through
the gaps of the central mountain chain, but any gusty winds should
be relatively short-lived since they will be only density driven.
Wednesday looks to be much drier than previous days thanks to
ridging amplifying over the Four Corners region. Heat-related
illness will become a concern once again, mainly in the lower
elevations along river valleys like Albuquerque, Roswell, and
Farmington. Rising heights and therefore stronger subsidence will
help temps climb a few more ticks on Thursday, which will likely be
the hottest day of the week (and potentially the year thus far).
Models are showing that some mid-level moisture will get picked up
into the ridge, helping isolated virga showers and mostly dry
storms develop over the high terrain of western NM on Thursday
afternoon. The deep, well-mixed, and very dry boundary layer means
that very gusty and erratic outflow wind gusts are possible with
any showers/storms that develop.

A closed Low off the southern CA coast will begin to eject inland
Thursday night as it comes under the influence of the intensifying
jet stream over the northern Rockies. Models continue to struggle
with how quickly this feature will move inland and if it will
move through the center of the state or just graze the northern
border. The slightly deeper solution (supported by around half of
ensembles) would pull more moisture in from the east and result in
scattered to even widespread storm coverage. The grazing
shortwave solution supported by the other half of guidance would
still support some showers over the northern high terrain and the
northeast plains, but any convection outside of that would be on
the drier side. Friday should also be a breezy day for most of the
area, with the strongest gusts over the western high terrain. Dry
weather is expected to return Saturday as the wave exits to the
east and dry air funnels in behind it. There is around a 35%
chance that a longwave trough will develop over the western US
early next week, placing New Mexico under dry southwest flow. The
other 65% of ensembles suggest a less amplified pattern with very
weak flow over the state. This could help moisture from robust
convection along the Sierra Madre Occidental in Mexico to sneak up
into southern NM around the middle of next week. A robust early
season monsoon surge appears unlikely, but a mix of wet and dry
showers and storms wouldn`t be unreasonable to expect. Under
either scenario, temperatures should be hot with continued heat-
related concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1017 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A large area of stratiform rain with embedded showers persists
across the area and is associated with mostly VFR and MVFR
conditions. Thunderstorms are developing west of KROW and may move
through the terminal between 20-23Z, bringing MVFR conditions in
heavy rain and gusty winds. Lower thunder storm probabilities
elsewhere, although KTCC would be next in line for potential
impacts. Slow improvement is forecast overnight into Tuesday,
with a couple of exceptions. Patchy low stratus may develop in the
Rio Grande Valley early Tuesday morning and impact KABQ and
possibly KSAF, but forecast confidence is too low to include in
TAFs at this time. Higher probabilities for low stratus/fog across
eastern NM with MVFR impacts forecast at KTCC, although IFR
impacts can not be ruled out Tuesday morning. Lastly, areas of
mountain obscurations currently will become more patchy overnight
and absent by mid day Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Continued moisture will work to limit critical fire weather
conditions today. Expect wetting footprints for storms to increase
further today, especially along the Rio Grande Valley and eastward.
Much warmer and drier conditions will take hold Tuesday through
Thursday as as ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Minimum RH
values will plummet Tuesday, landing 10 to 30 percent less than
Monday`s readings. Low double to single digit values will return to
areas west of the central mountains on Wednesday, persisting through
Thursday and spreading further eastward into the central mountains
and their adjacent highlands. An upper low will make its way into
the Desert Southwest on Thursday night, allowing for the ridge to
begin breaking down on Friday. While an influx of moisture is
expected with this system, strengthening southwest and south winds
will bring the potential for critical fire weather conditions for
west central zones. The quick-hitting disturbance may bring a chance
for wetting showers and storms to north central and northeast New
Mexico. Drying westerly flow aloft will bring minRH values back down
on Saturday, drying even further on Sunday. Light winds will keep
critical fire weather conditions at bay.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  85  56  94  58 /  20  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  75  44  88  43 /  60  20  10   0
Cuba............................  74  51  86  52 /  40  30   5   0
Gallup..........................  81  45  91  49 /  20  10   0   0
El Morro........................  75  50  85  52 /  30  10   0   5
Grants..........................  78  47  89  49 /  40  20   5   5
Quemado.........................  80  52  88  54 /  20  10   0   5
Magdalena.......................  77  57  88  60 /  60  20   5  10
Datil...........................  76  53  86  58 /  40  20   5   5
Reserve.........................  86  46  93  49 /  10   5   5   5
Glenwood........................  91  61  97  66 /   5   5   0   0
Chama...........................  69  44  80  46 /  70  50  30   0
Los Alamos......................  68  57  81  60 /  70  50  30   5
Pecos...........................  68  51  82  55 /  80  40  40  10
Cerro/Questa....................  66  45  78  49 /  80  60  40   5
Red River.......................  60  43  69  45 /  90  50  60  10
Angel Fire......................  64  38  74  40 /  90  40  60   5
Taos............................  71  46  83  49 /  70  50  30   5
Mora............................  66  47  78  48 /  90  50  70   5
Espanola........................  75  55  90  56 /  70  40  20   0
Santa Fe........................  68  55  83  59 /  70  50  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  73  55  88  58 /  60  40  10   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  75  61  89  64 /  50  20   5   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  77  61  91  63 /  40  20   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  80  61  93  62 /  40  20   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  78  61  92  63 /  40  20   0   5
Belen...........................  82  57  94  58 /  40  20   0  10
Bernalillo......................  78  60  92  62 /  50  20   5   5
Bosque Farms....................  80  56  93  58 /  40  20   0   5
Corrales........................  79  58  92  62 /  50  20   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  81  56  93  59 /  30  20   0   5
Placitas........................  73  60  88  63 /  50  20   5   5
Rio Rancho......................  78  60  91  63 /  50  20   0   5
Socorro.........................  85  62  98  64 /  50  20   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  71  56  83  58 /  60  20   5   5
Tijeras.........................  73  56  86  58 /  60  20   5   5
Edgewood........................  72  53  86  53 /  60  20  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  74  49  86  50 /  60  20  10   5
Clines Corners..................  68  51  81  53 /  70  20  10   5
Mountainair.....................  74  53  87  54 /  60  20   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  76  53  87  55 /  60  20   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  81  60  91  63 /  60  20   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  75  55  84  57 /  60  20  10  10
Capulin.........................  68  51  78  53 /  70  30  30  10
Raton...........................  72  52  83  53 /  80  40  30   5
Springer........................  72  53  84  53 /  70  40  40   5
Las Vegas.......................  67  50  80  53 /  80  50  50   5
Clayton.........................  72  56  84  60 /  60  30  30   5
Roy.............................  69  54  82  57 /  80  50  40  10
Conchas.........................  74  58  87  60 /  80  50  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  73  57  84  59 /  80  40  10   5
Tucumcari.......................  74  57  85  60 /  80  50   5   5
Clovis..........................  76  61  85  62 /  70  60  10  10
Portales........................  78  60  87  61 /  70  60  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  77  60  89  62 /  70  30   0   5
Roswell.........................  85  66  95  69 /  50  30   0   0
Picacho.........................  80  58  91  60 /  70  20  10   5
Elk.............................  80  56  90  57 /  50  30  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-229.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11