Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --639 FXUS65 KABQ 161758 AAC AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1158 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and Tuesday. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts and hail across northwest New Mexico today and across central and eastern New Mexico on Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, though these efficient rain producing storms will be moving quickly to the northeast. Quieter weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday, though a few breezes are likely. Severe weather may return for Friday across eastern New Mexico. Slightly cooler temperatures expected for the weekend so it should finally start feeling more like fall. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A batch of showers associated with a subtle shortwave are currently trekking across central NM this morning, while a few stronger storms can be seen on radar in southeastern AZ. These storms are associated with a SW/NE oriented jet streak currently at the base of a seasonably deep trough currently over central CA. The trough and associated jet streak will nudge eastward today, providing the forcing for numerous showers and storms in western and central NM. A slug of moisture out ahead of the trough will bring moisture levels up to as much as 200% of normal this afternoon in the northwest corner of the state, which is above the 90th percentile for climatology. While the forcing and moisture are certainly in place, instability is a bit of a question mark. Models are only showing slightly negative LIs (-1C to -3C) and modest CAPE (100-400J/kg). Shear is quite strong so long lasting storms will have no problem transferring gusty winds down to the surface, but heavy rainfall rates will be rather brief. Training storms will be required for flash flooding and those will be most likely along and just west of the Cont. Divide this afternoon. In addition, several storms will likely produce small hail, but confidence in severe hail is low due to the lack of instability as previously mentioned. Rounds of showers and storms are expected to continue through the overnight, but the exact locations of these showers is somewhat uncertain so expect potentially significant changes to PoPs in future forecast packages. Hi-res models are picking up on a cluster of showers and storms over the HPCC burn scar so nighttime flash flooding will be a concern. The trough will eject eastward into The Great Basin Tuesday. A cold front at the base of the trough will advect drier air in from the west, quickly shutting off precipitation chances and cooling temps down a few degrees. Storms will focus along the leading edge of the front Tuesday as dry air out ahead of the front destabilizes the atmosphere in eastern NM. Severe storms are possible as far west as the Rio Grande Valley in the late morning/early afternoon, but confidence is greater further east. Storm mode in this environment is a bit tricky. While supercells are certainly possible in this sheared environment, hi-res models suggest storms may cluster together into a line as they trek from the central mountain chain eastward to the TX border. These storms will be moving very quickly, helping to once again mitigate the flash flood threat. A quick 1"-2" is possible in many areas, but 3"+ appears unlikely (<10% chance anywhere) per HREF guidance. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A line or broken line of thunderstorms will continue to track eastward as the trough axis swings across NM Tuesday evening. A few strong or severe storms will be likely through mid evening then much of the precipitation should decrease in intensity as it shifts into Texas. Quiet conditions are expected after midnight. Wednesday and Thursday look to be dry and quiet. The dryline across eastern NM will mix out each afternoon as southwesterly flow aloft mixes to the surface. A stray thunderstorm is not out of the question right near the NM/TX border Thursday, but confidence is low that this will occur. Instead breezy southwesterly winds are expected each afternoon. Temperatures will be a little below normal across the west and a bit above normal across eastern NM. Meanwhile, the next upper level low pressure system will dive southward along the CA coast on Wednesday and shift eastward over the southern Great Basin on Thursday. This low will continue to track along the UT/AZ border on Friday. As it does so, strong low level southerly flow will allow Gulf moisture to return to eastern NM, setting up a dryline just east of the Central Mountain Chain. Strong lift ahead of the low will aid in the development of thunderstorms along the dryline. Attm, it looks like there will be more speed shear than directional shear which may favor splitting storms. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible, though damaging winds appear more likely given fast storm motions (on the order of 35-40 mph) and modest instability. The upper low will weaken as it continues to track eastward Friday night and Saturday across Colorado. A few thunderstorms will be possible across eastern NM on Saturday, but overall the low should pass with little additional fanfare. A cold front will pass through NM, dropping temperatures a few degrees for the weekend, but most areas will still be within a few degrees of normal for late September. && .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Some localized MVFR ceilings across north central NM through early afternoon due to lingering batch of light to moderate showers. Showers and storms are beginning to develop across eastern NM and look to impact western TAF sites, including KFMN and KGUP, this evening. Storms will be capable of producing gusts of up to 60 mph across western NM and locally heavy rainfall with quick motion to the northeast. Showers and storms could struggle to hold together across central TAF sites including KSAF, KABQ, and KAEG, due to low instability from this morning`s cloud cover and shower activity. Meanwhile, for eastern TAF sites generally dry conditions with breezy south winds for the afternoon into the early evening. Some showers could clip KLVS this evening into the overnight hours coming off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Some isolated showers across western and northern TAF sites overnight with lowering but still VFR ceilings. KLVS could get close to MVFR ceilings. Cold front and westerly wind shift enters western NM in the last few hours of the TAF period.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Numerous showers and storms are expected today along and west of the central mountain chain with isolated showers and storms to the east. Gusty winds will accompany most showers and storms and a few across the northwest could produce damaging outflow wind gusts and small hail. Breezy southwest to south winds will prevail across the area today, turning more westerly tomorrow as a cold front crosses the state from west to east. Locally windy conditions may develop just east of the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon out ahead of the said cold front, although the greater concern will be strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts and large hail. These strong storms are possible as far west as the Rio Grande Valley, but confidence is greater further east. Most of the area will see wetting rainfall today and/or Tuesday and a few locations could see over 1" after repeated rounds of showers and storms. Dryline storms are possible in far eastern NM mid to late week as southwesterlies remain entrenched across the state out ahead of another Pacific trough. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --Farmington...................... 57 75 44 76 / 50 60 0 0 Dulce........................... 48 67 34 72 / 70 70 0 0 Cuba............................ 52 71 42 74 / 50 50 0 0 Gallup.......................... 52 72 37 76 / 20 40 0 0 El Morro........................ 51 70 40 74 / 30 40 0 0 Grants.......................... 50 75 38 79 / 30 40 0 0 Quemado......................... 52 73 41 77 / 20 30 0 0 Magdalena....................... 56 77 49 79 / 30 20 0 0 Datil........................... 50 74 42 77 / 20 20 0 0 Reserve......................... 53 75 42 80 / 30 40 0 0 Glenwood........................ 60 78 52 83 / 30 30 0 0 Chama........................... 46 60 34 67 / 80 70 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 55 70 50 73 / 60 70 10 0 Pecos........................... 53 69 46 71 / 50 70 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 67 41 69 / 60 60 10 0 Red River....................... 45 59 37 61 / 60 60 20 0 Angel Fire...................... 44 64 31 67 / 50 60 20 0 Taos............................ 50 71 39 74 / 60 60 10 0 Mora............................ 49 68 39 74 / 50 70 20 0 Espanola........................ 57 78 47 81 / 60 60 10 0 Santa Fe........................ 56 71 48 73 / 60 60 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 76 46 77 / 60 50 10 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 80 55 81 / 60 50 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 61 82 56 82 / 60 40 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 60 84 52 84 / 50 30 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 82 53 82 / 60 40 5 0 Belen........................... 60 85 51 84 / 40 30 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 60 83 52 84 / 60 40 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 59 84 49 84 / 50 30 5 0 Corrales........................ 61 83 52 84 / 60 40 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 60 84 51 84 / 50 30 0 0 Placitas........................ 59 80 52 79 / 60 40 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 61 82 52 82 / 60 40 5 0 Socorro......................... 62 87 54 88 / 30 20 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 55 73 47 74 / 60 50 5 0 Tijeras......................... 57 77 49 76 / 60 50 5 0 Edgewood........................ 54 77 45 78 / 50 50 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 79 42 80 / 40 50 10 0 Clines Corners.................. 53 74 46 76 / 40 50 10 0 Mountainair..................... 55 77 47 78 / 40 30 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 56 77 48 79 / 30 30 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 61 80 55 83 / 20 20 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 55 73 51 76 / 20 40 10 5 Capulin......................... 54 72 48 75 / 20 50 30 0 Raton........................... 54 75 44 80 / 30 50 20 0 Springer........................ 55 77 45 82 / 30 50 20 0 Las Vegas....................... 53 73 44 76 / 50 70 20 0 Clayton......................... 60 82 56 83 / 10 30 50 0 Roy............................. 58 76 50 79 / 40 60 40 0 Conchas......................... 62 84 55 87 / 40 60 40 0 Santa Rosa...................... 61 81 54 84 / 40 50 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 62 86 58 87 / 20 40 50 5 Clovis.......................... 62 88 61 90 / 5 40 60 5 Portales........................ 62 89 60 92 / 5 30 60 5 Fort Sumner..................... 63 86 57 88 / 20 50 30 0 Roswell......................... 68 91 64 95 / 10 30 20 0 Picacho......................... 60 84 56 89 / 10 30 10 0 Elk............................. 57 83 53 87 / 10 30 10 5-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ214-215.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...71