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462
FXUS65 KABQ 080922
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
322 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Today will be another hot one, but highs will be a few degrees
cooler than the past couple days. Showers and storms will focus from
the central mountain chain eastward, although some isolated activity
is possible over the western high terrain as well. Precipitation
chances increase Sunday and Monday when widespread to numerous
storms will create an increased risk of flash flooding over recent
burn scars. Some storms may become severe across eastern NM Sunday
and again Monday. Drier weather returns mid-week as temperatures
climb above average again.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A long distance relationship between our recently departed upper
high and a casually loitering low near the Baja CA will be the
primary influence to sensible weather in the short term. The upper
high continues sinking southeastward today, taking residence near
the Gulf Coast. This will allow for a regime of quasi-northwest flow
aloft to take shape while a backdoor sfc front surges southward and
eastward across the Great Plains. A well-defined shortwave trough
will slide across CO and northern NM in the afternoon, increasing
large-scale ascent. While lift will be enhanced, suboptimal shear
will limit storms from organizing and sustaining. Still, a rogue
storm or two in northeastern NM could become ambitious, capable of
large hail and damaging winds. Elsewhere, scant moisture will give
rise to another day of gusty virga showers, with sudden and strong
microburst winds possible. Coverage will be reduced but DCAPE values
in excess of 1000 J/kg will still remain supreme for any cells that
do form.

The backdoor front will arrive into northeastern NM Saturday night,
bringing with it an influx of moisture. PWATs across the eastern
plains--which struggled to surpass and inch Saturday--will climb as
high as 1.5in Sunday afternoon, with western locales rising closer
to 0.75in. Meanwhile, the aforementioned loitering low will mosey
into the Desert Southwest, becoming vague in its structure in the
process. Multiple lobes of vorticity form with the low`s drunken
stroll northeastward Sunday, further enhancing the day`s available
lift. This combined with juicy Tds, reasonable shear of around 30 to
35 kts, and CAPE in excess of 1600 J/kg in spots could give rise to
isolated to widely scattered severe storms Sunday afternoon. In
addition to the threat of large hail and damaging winds, slow storm
motions in northern NM could create the threat for flash flooding,
particularly over burn scars in the central mts. Without strong
deviations amongst guidance, do expect at a Flash Flood Watch will
be issued in future updates.

Temperatures will be just shy of Heat Advisory criteria for the RGV
and locales in the eastern plains today but will still be well above
average for early June. A marked cooldown will take place Sunday,
with locales areawide seeing reductions of 5F to 15F compared to
Saturday`s readings.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Convective activity Sunday may persist well into the overnight hours
as cold pools collide and storms regenerate. The severe threat will
mainly be in the form of wind, but flash flooding could be a concern
as rounds of storms dump over the same areas. The vigorous
convection in eastern NM will likely send a strong outflow boundary
through the gaps of the central mountain chain, creating gusty east
winds in east Albuquerque and increasing dewpoints into the low 50s
along the Rio Grande Valley.

The aformentioned slow-moving Low will help to focus Monday`s round
of storms over the northern mountains and eastern plains again.
There is some uncertainty on whether the atmosphere will destabilize
enough to get strong updrafts and heavy rainfall rates, but the 200%
of normal PWATs alone suggest the potential for efficient rainfall if
there is enough afternoon clearing. Furthermore, there should be
plenty of boundaries around from Sunday`s storms for updrafts to
develop on. The GEFS is showing around a 50% chance of greater than
1" of rainfall along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
mountains for the Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon time
period with lesser probabilities (20-40%) over the eastern plains
where heavy rainfall will be more localized. Storms along and west
of the central mountain chain will be on the drier side with very
small wetting footprints and gusty outflow winds that may kick up
some dust. Storms in eastern NM may organize into an MCS on Monday.
Shear looks slightly stronger than Sunday, but the feature would
still likely be more cold-pool dominant. Areas with heavy rainfall
on Sunday will be at risk for flash flooding again Monday.

Convective activity trends down on Tuesday, but a shortwave is
expected to clip the northeast corner of the state during the
afternoon. Northwest flow will drive storms off the east slopes of
the Sangre de Cristo mountains into the eastern plains where they
could become supercells. Ridging will attempt to amplify over the
desert southwest on Wednesday, helping temperatures rise 5-10
degrees above average from the central mountain chain westward.
Dryline activity is possible in far eastern NM and cannot rule out a
few build-ups over the northern mountains either. Long-term ensemble
guidance is coming into better agreement that ridging will continue
to amplify over The Great Basin mid to late week. This will keep
mostly dry conditions and light breezes around. However, the Low
spinning off the coast of Baja California may begin to eject inland
by Friday. The Low will phase with an approaching longwave trough
from the Pacific Northwest, but the timing of that feature is highly
uncertain right now.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Remnant isold shwrs/tstms will continue tracking nely,
diminishing in the early portion of the TAF period. Conditions
will dry out overnight, with winds becoming mostly light and vrb.
Aftn shwrs/tstm activity will return Saturday with the highest
coverage favoring along and east of the central mts. Drier virga
shwrs will be more likely across portions of the upper Rio Grande
Valley and wwd, as well as the southwest mts. Storms across ern NM
may be capable of becoming severe with large hail and damaging
winds. Convective activity will diminish in the late evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Improving moisture and lighter winds will help to limit critical
fire weather conditions through the majority of the forecast period.
A mix of wet/dry storms will prevail once again today capable of
sudden and erratic downburst winds. A surge of moisture is expected
Sunday, along with cooler temperatures areawide. The potential for
strong to severe storms will favor areas east of the central
mountains, with drier storms prevailing across the middle and lower
Rio Grande Valley and westward. Storms will return Monday afternoon
with an increase potentially in wetting footprints thanks to the
continuing surge of moisture. High pressure begins to reform over
New Mexico on Tuesday, allowing for dry air to quickly reenter the
area. Low double and single digit min RH will return west of the
central mountains, with min RH above 15 percent persisting across
eastern New Mexico. Further drying is expected on Wednesday and
Thursday, bringing all zones near or below critical RH thresholds.
Outside of thunderstorm gusts, winds during this time will remain
generally light to locally breezy. The ridge will breakdown on
Friday as a Pacific disturbance makes its way through the Desert
Southwest. This will bring the potential for breezy to locally windy
south and southwest winds on Friday amongst low to moderate RH.
Critical fire weather conditions may develop across portions of
western New Mexico during this time, with elevated to near-critical
fire weather conditions existing west of the central mountains.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Farmington......................  95  58  90  63 /   0   0   5  10
Dulce...........................  90  45  89  51 /   0   0  20  30
Cuba............................  90  54  85  55 /   0   0  20  30
Gallup..........................  91  52  84  53 /   0   0   5  10
El Morro........................  86  56  79  52 /   0   0  20  30
Grants..........................  91  54  84  52 /   0   0  20  30
Quemado.........................  88  56  81  53 /   5  10  30  20
Magdalena.......................  90  64  83  57 /  10  10  40  30
Datil...........................  87  61  80  54 /  10  10  40  30
Reserve.........................  92  49  87  50 /  10  10  30  20
Glenwood........................  95  63  92  62 /  10  10  30  10
Chama...........................  84  46  83  49 /   0   0  30  40
Los Alamos......................  89  64  83  58 /  10   5  50  40
Pecos...........................  92  57  83  55 /  20  10  70  70
Cerro/Questa....................  84  50  80  51 /  20   5  70  50
Red River.......................  77  46  71  46 /  30  10  70  60
Angel Fire......................  82  40  74  45 /  30  10  70  60
Taos............................  91  51  84  52 /  10   5  60  50
Mora............................  86  50  77  50 /  30  10  80  60
Espanola........................  97  59  91  59 /  10   5  50  40
Santa Fe........................  91  61  84  57 /  10   5  60  60
Santa Fe Airport................  95  60  88  58 /   5   5  50  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  96  69  87  62 /   0   5  40  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  97  67  89  63 /   0   5  30  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  99  65  92  63 /   0   5  30  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  98  68  90  63 /   0   5  30  40
Belen...........................  99  64  91  61 /   5   5  30  40
Bernalillo......................  99  67  91  62 /   0   5  30  40
Bosque Farms....................  99  62  91  61 /   0   5  30  40
Corrales........................  99  66  91  63 /   0   5  30  40
Los Lunas.......................  99  63  91  62 /   0   5  30  40
Placitas........................  95  67  87  61 /   0   5  40  40
Rio Rancho......................  98  68  90  63 /   0   5  30  40
Socorro......................... 101  69  93  63 /   5  10  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  63  83  56 /   0   5  40  50
Tijeras.........................  92  63  86  57 /   0   5  40  50
Edgewood........................  93  60  86  55 /   0   5  50  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  94  55  87  54 /   5   5  50  50
Clines Corners..................  89  56  80  53 /  10  10  60  60
Mountainair.....................  92  59  84  54 /   5  10  40  50
Gran Quivira....................  92  58  84  55 /  10  10  50  50
Carrizozo.......................  95  65  89  60 /  20  20  40  50
Ruidoso.........................  87  60  83  55 /  40  10  60  40
Capulin.........................  86  54  72  54 /  50  30  80  70
Raton...........................  90  55  80  54 /  40  20  80  60
Springer........................  92  56  80  56 /  40  20  80  70
Las Vegas.......................  89  55  78  53 /  30  10  80  70
Clayton.........................  93  59  75  59 /  30  40  50  60
Roy.............................  92  58  78  57 /  30  20  70  80
Conchas......................... 101  64  86  61 /  20  20  60  80
Santa Rosa......................  97  62  84  60 /  20  20  60  70
Tucumcari....................... 100  63  85  62 /  10  20  40  80
Clovis.......................... 100  66  90  62 /  10  30  30  80
Portales........................ 102  66  93  62 /  10  30  30  80
Fort Sumner..................... 100  65  90  62 /  20  20  40  70
Roswell......................... 104  73  97  68 /  10  10  20  50
Picacho.........................  95  64  90  60 /  40  10  60  50
Elk.............................  93  62  90  57 /  50  10  50  40
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...12