-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
758
FXUS61 KBTV 221131
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
731 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much of the region will remain dry, outside some localized
precipitation chances across St. Lawrence County. The gradual
cooling trend will continue during the next several days, bringing
high temperatures from the upper 60s to mid 70s down into the lower
60s to near 70. More widespread precipitation chances are still
likely beginning Tuesday evening and continuing into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 731 AM EDT Sunday...It`s generally a cloudier morning
than a foggy morning unlike the last several nights. Some
stratus is trapped east of the Greens and in pockets of the
Adirondacks while some high clouds continue to spawn from the
upper low still ambling about. The forecast is in good shape.
There are some showers in the Northeast Kingdom, but there is
question whether they are reaching the ground. On one hand,
reflectivity sharply drops with each scan, but on the other,
cloud bases are noted as low as 3000 ft agl across various
weather stations. A few sprinkles could be occurring here and
there, but have no confirmation of ground truth, and so did not
modify PoPs. But wouldn`t be surprised if a few are waking up to
sprinkles.

Very little change to the overall weather pattern is present
with a quasi-stationary upper low pressure offshore and surface
high pressure nosing into the area. A subtle surface trough is
still meandering through northern New York too, and it`s
currently producing scattered showers in northeastern Oneida
County, and what could be some new ones popping just west of
Saranac Lake. Like yesterday, this could spark a few pop up
showers in St. Lawrence County this afternoon. Otherwise, mostly
dry today, with thinning high clouds. Expect upper 60s to lower
70s east, and lower 70s to mid 70s west today. It should be
another fantastic weather day.

For tonight, the recent fog pattern should come to a temporary
close. Increasing winds at 700-1500 ft agl and incoming clouds from
the west should limit fog. Still, think some sheltered sections of
far eastern Vermont may not be exempt from fog, though. Overnight
lows will be warmest west where high clouds will start to shift into
northern New, and the Champlain Valley due to light south flow
likely remaining overnight with 50s. In cool hollows of the Dacks
and the rest of Vermont, generally 40s are expected.

About dawn on Monday, higher theta e air will edge east with return
flow trying to establish itself after being absent so many days, but
high pressure will also build southwards. Precipitation should
develop along the St. Lawrence River, but will likely dissipate as
the center of persistent surface high pressure approaches northern
Maine. Easterly flow will advect dry air that will undercut moisture
trying to advance. We could see some virga continue to propagate
east, but any rain at the surface will likely stop at the
Adirondacks. The high clouds from the weak shortwave shifting east
and the reinforced east to southeast flow will help us stay cooler
with mid 60s to near 70.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 312 AM EDT Sunday...Dry weather will continue to prevail
through much of the short term period with high pressure keeping
hold over the region. The ridge axis finally starts to shift
eastward Tuesday night, allowing precipitation to make some headway
into northern NY late. With rain to arrive later than previously
anticipated, we`re now expecting fewer clouds Monday night and
Tuesday, which will impact temperatures. More optimal radiational
cooling Monday night will make for another cool night with lows in
the mid 40s to low 50s. Meanwhile, have been bumped up Tuesday`s
highs a few degrees since we`re expecting more sunshine. Highs will
remain seasonable, in the mid 60s to around 70F. Tuesday night`s
lows will be similar to Monday night, though this will depend on how
quickly clouds arrive ahead of our next system.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 312 AM EDT Sunday...In general, the second half of the week is
looking unsettled, though there are still a lot of differences in
model solutions. Precipitation chances will increase on Wednesday
into Thursday as a northern stream upper trough digs into the Great
Lakes and pivots eastward. The uncertainty comes thereafter with how
this interacts and/or phases with a southern stream system over the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. And a potential tropical
system lifting toward the Gulf Coast by the end of the week only
further complicates matters. Note that the latest GFS phases the
northern and southern stream troughs, tapping into the tropical
moisture from the Gulf system, resulting in widespread rainfall
across our region with multiple inches of rain. This is an outlier,
however, and given the persistent pattern we`ve been in, favor
something more like the ECMWF and CMC which keep northern and
southern systems separate and shunts any tropical moisture well to
our south. Given the range of solutions, stayed close to the NBM for
this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 12Z Monday...Conditions are currently VFR, though there
are some clouds near KSLK, KMPV, and KEFK that are just above
3000 ft agl. With solar heating, think ceilings should trend
gradually higher than descending. Winds are currently light and
variable, and should trend 6 to 10 knots between 14z and 22z
before returning close to 5 knots after 22z. Wind direction will
be mainly southeast, though northeast at KMSS. Winds abate some
after 00z, but are not expected to become calm. Additionally,
winds around 700-1500 ft agl should increase to 20 knots after
00z, and this should preclude fog in addition to increasing high
clouds moving in from the west.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes