-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
767
FXUS61 KCAR 060210
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1010 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough drifts south of the area tonight. An storm system then
slowly approaches from the west Thursday through Friday night,
then slowly crosses the region Saturday and Sunday. A cold front
will push southeast into Maine on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1010 pm update...
Skies are clearing in the wake of vort that moved thru this
evening and responsible for convection this afternoon. Areas
that received rainfall this afternoon will likely see patchy fog
set in late tonight. Locations from Dover down toward Corinth
saw rainfall amounts anywhere from 1-2 inches and may experience
locally dense fog at some points overnight. No major chgs needed
with this update.

Prev discussion blo...
A northern stream shortwave rounding the backside of the cutoff
low over the southeastern Maritimes, should exit to the south
later this evening. This should bring an end to the threat for
any showers and thunderstorms, mainly over western portions of
the CWA, early this evening. With PWs around 1.3 inches and wet
bulb zero heights around 8-9 thousand feet, could see some
locally heavy rainfall and/or small hail with stronger storms.
Noting ML CAPEs currently generally 500-1000 J/kg, with isolated
1000-1500 J/kg amounts - consistent with 12z model soundings,
and bulk shear 20-30kt, also as progged, this supports current
thinking that while a storm or two could reach severe limits,
the threat is neither extensive or widespread. The best threat
for any stronger/severe storm late this afternoon/early this
evening would be from the Central Highlands into the Bangor
region. Most likely areas along the eastern Canadian border
except for maybe central/coastal Washington should stay dry.

Based on this, would think the best chance for any fog
overnight/early Thursday morning should be where any
precipitation falls - mainly the Central Highlands down into
western Downeast Maine.

Thursday another shortwave passes to the south, as a low level
southeast flow sets up in the low levels. For now most areas
should be dry at least in the morning, with the potential for
some isolated to scattered showers over all but far NE Maine in
the afternoon, especially in upslope regions.

Lows tonight should be mainly in the 50s, coolest near the
immediate coast - which is around 5-10 degrees above normal.
Highs on Thursday should range from the mid 70s to around 80,
except over Downeast Maine, where they should be mainly from the
mid 60s to lower 70s. This is around 5-10 degrees above normal
across the interior and near to slightly below normal across
Downeast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An occluded front will make a very slow progression northward
Thursday night and Friday morning, with an accordingly slow
northward progression of increasing rain shower coverage as
well. By Friday afternoon, the most widespread coverage for
showers will be across the Central Highlands. QPF values will
be heaviest Friday afternoon over the Central Highlands along
and NW of the Longfellow Mtns. Flooding is not expected to be
an impact, but smaller streams may rise quickly, especially with
the recent dry weather for antecedent conditions. Cooler
surface temperatures behind the front limits instability, so
the chance of thunder for Friday afternoon is unlikely.

The front will continue to progress northward as it deteriorates
Friday night. Showers are likely across the north through early
Saturday morning with chance showers from Bangor to Calais and
points south. Low temperatures will remain seasonable, in the
mid-50s across the board. The large scale upper level low
remains over the area with cooler pocket aloft working into New
England. Showers look likely especially across the northern
2/3rd of the CWA as shortwave energy pivots over the area.
Expecting some daytime heating that will result in showers and
thunderstorms from Bangor to Baring points northward. Given a
lot of clouds around and slightly cooler airmass under the
overall large upper level disturbance expect upper 60s north and
around low 70s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sat night into Mon remains uncertain with the large scale trof
overhead and as things shift west to east slowly. Expecting
persistent afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
thanks to some daytime heating. However, without a specific
forcing feature (most likely pieces of vorticity or shortwave),
the exact location of the showers remains a little unfocused at
this time. Don`t expect a total washout but the pattern favors
an unsettled time with chances of rainfall. Therefore, continued
the trend of previous forecasts reducing NBM PoPs from
categorical to likely for the region. Increased chances for
thunderstorms expected both Sunday and Monday, with a slightly
colder pool of air aloft and the potential for afternoon heating
increasing lapse rates. Beyond, Tuesday expecting the overall
drier trend but cannot rule out some showers given shortwave
energy on the backside of the departing trof but less showers
than we see this weekend. Wednesday expecting high pressure and
SW flow to develop across the area with warmer temperatures
while a cold front approaches from the west. Temperatures
Tuesday into Wednesday return to mid and upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR for Aroostook terminals, though cannot rule out
FEW010 at HUL toward daybreak.

Downeast terminals will experience showers this evening before
giving way to IFR vsbys late tonight. Cannot rule out LIFR at
BHB around daybreak. BGR likely to see MVFR on Thursday and IFR
at BHB through the day.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday night: VFR at Aroostook County airports. MVFR or lower
possible at southern airports. E-SE winds 10 kt or less.

Friday...VFR/MVFR. -SHRA likely. E-SE winds 5-15kt.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR. -SHRA likely. Possible VCTS at BGR
northward. S-SE winds 5-15kt.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR. -SHRA likely. Possible VCTS at BGR northward.
SW 5-15kt.

Monday...VFR/MVFR. -SHRA likely. Possible VCTS at BGR northward.
W 5-15kt except turns S-SW at BHB afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters will
limit winds to 10 kt or less and seas to 2 ft or less through
Thursday. Marine fog is possible late tonight and Thursday
morning, reducing visibilities to less than 1 nm at times.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below SCA conditions into early next
week. Seas 3-5ft on Friday subside to 2-4ft for Sat-Sun. Then
1-3ft on Mon and Tue. Showers possible from Fri-Mon with
overnight fog potentially reducing vsby at times. E winds
expected Fri, S-SSW on Sat-Sun then SW on Mon-Tue. Winds
including gusts expected to be below 20kt. Sea surface
temperatures along the Downeast coast out 25nm are in the upper
40s to near 50F, coldest waters near the Hague Line and
Passamaquoddy Bay.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/Maloit
Short Term...Sinko
Long Term...Sinko
Aviation...Buster/Maloit/Sinko
Marine...Buster/Maloit/Sinko