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105
FXUS62 KCHS 162013
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
413 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will linger over the area tonight before
dissipating early this week. High pressure will then ridge in
from offshore mid to late week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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This Evening: A weak cold front will be located across our area.
Afternoon radar imagery indicates isolated to scattered
convection over our SC counties, moving WSW with the sea breeze.
This matches up fairly well with the CAMs and the HRRR. Likewise,
SPC Mesoscale Analysis indicates MLCAPEs up to 1,500-2,000 J/kg
across our northernmost counties. DCAPEs will be around 1,000
J/kg. So while there remains a lot of mid-level dry air in
place per the model soundings, any stronger storms that manage
to develop could generate strong. The convection will gradually
decrease into this evening.

Tonight: Mid-level ridging persists, maybe even strengthening a
bit. The weak cold front across our area should gradually lift
to the north. The synoptic models and CAMs keep our area dry.
Though, there should be increasing high clouds from the SW
overnight. Winds should also be light or calm. Lows should be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s at most places, except the mid 70s
closer to the coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Aloft, a ridge will remain centered across the Southeast and
Mid- Atlantic States Monday, before becoming more elongated
across the Northeast to Southeast United States Tuesday and
Wednesday. At the sfc, a stalled front across the local area
will likely dissipate early week, before high pressure builds
across the region from the Atlantic by Tuesday. Weak coastal
troughing developing along the southern periphery of the ridge
is anticipated just off the Southeast Coast, which should favor
few to potentially scattered showers and thunderstorms across
coastal areas, mainly south of Beaufort, SC and into southeast
Georgia Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evenings, before precip
coverage gradually increases and shifts slightly further inland
Wednesday as ample moisture arrives within a prolonged onshore
flow. High temps in the upper 80s nearshore to lower 90s inland
Monday should trend a degree or two cooler each day through
Wednesday with the onshore flow prevailing. Overnight lows will
range in the mid-upper 60s well inland to low- mid 70s closer to
the coast Monday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Subsidence will continue to diminish aloft with retreating high
pressure at the surface and aloft, and the environment will
trend back towards a more typical summertime pattern, with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during afternoon
hours. Moisture is anticipated to stream into the region during
the second half of the week as a low pressure disturbance
approaches the Southeast United States and lingers off the east
coast of Florida. The additional moisture will help to enhance
afternoon showers and thunderstorms locally, especially across
southeast GA later in the week. Temperatures are expected to
remain near normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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20Z Update: Mainly VFR. Isolated to scattered convection should
stay inland of the TAF sites through early this evening.
Otherwise, gusty winds should persist until around sunset, then
be light or calm overnight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. Brief flight
restrictions are possible in afternoon showers/thunderstorms
Monday to Wednesday, especially at KSAV. Later in the week,
chances of tempo flight restrictions increase at CHS/JZI/SAV
terminals with showers and thunderstorms moving onshore.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Tonight: A weak cold front will linger over the area this
evening before slowly lifting back northward late. Sustained
winds will be from the E 10-15 kt. Seas should average 2-3 ft.

Monday through Thursday: High pressure extending across the
region from the north and weak coastal troughing developing just
off the Southeast Coast will favor an enhanced pressure
gradient across local waters early week. In general, east-
northeast winds approaching 15-20 kt and seas building to 3-5 ft
are likely through Monday, before 6 ft seas arrive across
offshore Georgia waters Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be initiated across offshore Georgia waters by the end of
Tuesday. Heading through mid- week, high pressure and the
coastal trough persists, but increasing swell energy ahead of
Atlantic low pressure approaching eastern Florida and a
prolonged fetch will support seas building across local waters
while winds gust around 25 kts. Small Craft Advisories will
likely be needed for all waters outside the CHS Harbor during
the second half of the week with seas building as high as 6-9 ft
across nearshore waters and 7-11 ft across offshore Georgia
waters by Thursday.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk for rip currents will remain in
place this evening and through Monday with increasing swells
anticipated and the potential of ongoing rip currents being
reported today. A Moderate Risk for rip currents will likely
continue for all beaches midweek as well as swell energy
continues to increase ahead of a low pressure approaching the
Southeast United States late week.
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&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...