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115
FXUS63 KDLH 061139
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
639 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool, breezy, and cloudy today with some scattered rain
  showers.

- Quiet and mostly dry for Friday with scattered showers
  returning for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Current Conditions/Today:

A few scattered showers on radar this morning with satellite showing
an expansive stratus deck moving in from the northwest. The RAP
highlights trapped low level moisture through today so
expecting the cloud cover to stick around. An upper level low
will be brushing through the Arrowhead today pulling in some
breezy northwest winds upwards of 30mph. Weak forcing through
the day will also promote scattered rain showers. Broad cloud
cover limits the amount of instability we are able to build for
today therefore we are not expecting storms. The cooler
northwest winds combined with the cloud cover today will lead to
some lower then usual temps with highs in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.

Tomorrow:

The upper level low shifts east towards Lake Huron on Friday
allowing for weak surface ridging to build in. Temperatures warm
back up to seasonal temps of upper 60s and low 70s. Mostly sunny
skies with some diurnal cumulus building in the afternoon and
possibly some sprinkles. As we move into the evening hours a low
pressure sliding southeast across the Northern Plains will
bring some rain chances across the Brainerd Lakes region.

Weekend and extended forecast:

The aforementioned low will continue through southern MN
allowing for rain chances (30-50%) on Saturday. No severe
weather is expected as we remain firmly on the northern
periphery of the system. But some embedded thunder in the
afternoon is possible. We will continue to see cyclonic flow
aloft on Sunday with some diurnally driven showers in the
afternoon.

We start off the work week fairly quiet as there is good
agreement with high pressure over the region. Our next larger
scale system looks to arrive on Tuesday. Both the Euro and the
GFS are advertising a strengthening low moving across southern
Manitoba into Ontario with it`s associated cold front slicing
through the Northland. Convective parameters aren`t overly
impressive right now but will have to monitor for changes as we
get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Satellite and radar this morning show MVFR stratus moving in from
the northwest with some scattered rain showers embedded in the flow.
Winds are expected to become gusty out of the northwest shortly
after sunrise and persist through the forecast period. Low level
moisture and weak forcing will also promote the continued chances
for scattered rain showers. Thunderstorm chances are low and peak at
around 10% in the afternoon.
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&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Enhanced northwesterly winds today have lead to Small Craft
Advisories being needed across all the Nearshore waters. While
winds do weaken briefly this evening another surge of
northwesterly winds are expected for Friday that will likely
warrant another round of advisories. Additionally, there will
be some scattered rain showers today but lightning is not
expected.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     148.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ140>142.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     LSZ143>147-150.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt