-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
759
FXUS63 KDVN 081014
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
514 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower activity will be scattered over the area today, with
generally light amounts of rainfall or dry conditions.

- Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal through Tuesday
followed by a warm up that may bring us near 90 by late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

As expected with dry air and the surface warm front found well to
our southwest, the severe weather and overnight MCS is taking a more
southerly track through Missouri than the bulk of CAMs showed in the
past  few runs, and for that matter, farther south than most still
do today. This has resulted in only trace amounts of rain so far
tonight in the south, through the remaining early morning hours
could see the northern edge of stratiform rainfall brush through
with under 0.25 of rain potential occurring.  Farther north, it`s
been a dry night with some passing bands of high based virga.
Though dry, it has been mostly cloudy through the night, with
temperatures holding in the lower to mid 60s, and dewpoints slowly
rising back to around 50 in the central and north, and around 60 in
the south.

Today, a cold front will eventually move east through the area, but
in that transition, there is a short wave at mid levels that is now
expected to move through areas north of Interstate 80 today. Looking
upstream, this is shower activity and even a few lightning strikes
ongoing in southeast SD and southern MN with this wave. Thus, our
pops today are up, and mostly centered north of I-80 this morning to
early afternoon.  QPF looks to be a quarter inch or less in most
spots, given our dry air mass taking some additional saturation
hours that models are not handling (already showing 0.05 falling
during this virga period).

Highs today under rather extensive cloud cover will be limited to
the lower to mid 70s over the north half of the area, which will see
some wetbulbing of temperatures at times as well (hours in the 60s
during any rainfall). The south, which is going to have a rather
mild start in the upper 60s, should reach the upper 70s to around 80
today.

Tonight, gradual clearing is expected during the evening, with dry
air moving in for the night. This is a similar atmosphere to the one
of the past few days, with dew point temperatures generally in the
40s through Monday. Thus, overnight lows tonight, should easily fall
to the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Sunday will be a pleasant day with breezy northwest winds, and highs
in the upper 70s to around 80. Then the incoming cool regime will
last through Tuesday, with mainly dry conditions and wide diurnal
ranges each day. Highs 70s will pair with lows in the 50s in most
locations Monday and Tuesday.

Very lows rain/thunder chances are in place Wednesday and Thursday,
as warm advection begins spreading Plains air over the area. The
warm air is expected to establish itself earlier than any
significant moisture, so I`m inclined to lean into a dry forecast as
this heat arrives, which also results in the warmest day forecast to
be Thursday, which could reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Moisture,
will be in place for Friday and Saturday, which also carries a
chance for showers/thunder in those periods.  We will be on the
southern periphery of westerly flow aloft Thursday night through
Friday night, which is a favorable position for a chance for MCS
activity.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 511 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

High based showers will continue to move through southeast Iowa
early this morning, most of this activity will be virga, but
some showers will reach the ground near BRL at times through mid
morning, and other showers will be near MLI and CID. Dry air at
lower levels will keep our area VFR through this morning, though
another area of rain over northern Iowa looks a bit more
persistent near DBQ and we could see some temporary MVFR cigs
there. The cold front sweeps through, changing winds to
northwest by early afternoon. Models are showing MVFR conditions
widespread all day, but with so much dry air at low levels,
this seems too aggressive, and looking upstream in MN and the
rest of the upper Midwest, there are no low cigs anywhere, so
this is enough to forecast a VFR TAF, but I have left a
scattered 2500 ft layer in all areas this morning for the
frontal passage as suggestion that we could see a lower cig, but
again, it seems unlikely to happen.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin