-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
315
FXUS62 KGSP 102351
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
751 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front remains across the Gulf Coast to the Georgia
coast through mid week with dry conditions under weak high pressure.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
by next weekend as a weak cold front approaches from the north.
Temperatures are expected to be well above normal at end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 5:25 PM Monday: We remain dry across our fcst area with
few to sct fair-wx cumulus and some thin cirrus overhead. The
latest CAMs still try to develop some isolated showers over the
Upstate later this evening, but I still expect any precipitation
to remain to our south and along the remnants of the stalled
frontal bndy. With drier air in place and minimal cloud cover
overnight, temperatures should cool to about a category below
climatology outside the mtns, and 1 to 2 categories below climo
over the mtns.

Otherwise, broad upper trofing situated north of our CWA will
progress eastward as a strong ridge axis over the central/northern
CONUS amplifies. Flow aloft starts off in a quasi-zonal state and
becomes more of a broad NW direction by the end of the period.
Meanwhile, a weakened frontal boundary sags south of the area and
takes the last bits of QPF with it. Behind the front, a modest
amount of moisture lingers with PWATS near 1 inch as weak NLY flow
slows down the arrival of drier air. By Tuesday morning, PWATS will
start to decrease as the drier, sfc high pressure arrives and mixes
down the dewpoints a bit. Throughout Tuesday, the higher pressure
expands toward the east, toggling sfc winds N/NE and keeps the area
dry. Temperatures overnight will be the coolest night of the week
and highs on Tuesday start to rebound with temps near climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday: High pressure settles in over the area from
the northeast through the period as some weak short waves move
through the NW flow aloft, mainly north of the area. Guidance
continues to show cyclogenesis taking place off the FL Coast
Wednesday with it slowly moving E or NE. However, the global models
continue to show it relatively weak and far enough south and east
for little effect on our weather. The NAM and SREF show it stronger
and far enough north for moisture to move in on southeasterly flow.
Model blend keeps the forecast dry, so have followed that trend for
now, but given the disagreement, the forecast could change. Highs
near normal Wednesday rise 5 degrees on Thursday. Lows start out as
much as 5 degrees below normal and rise about 5 degrees Wednesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday: Guidance coming into better agreement for
this period. Upper trough moves east Friday with an anti-cyclone
building over the area Saturday. This remains in place Sunday and
moves toward the Carolina coast Monday. During this time a weak
upper low develops in the Gulf of Mexico, approaching the MS Delta
Sunday and moves into the Lower MS Valley Monday. A weak cold front
drops toward the area Friday, across the area Saturday then
dissipates on Sunday as high pressure builds in from the northeast.
Some weak southerly flow develops between the high center and a weak
surface low associated with the upper low. The guidance agrees on
the weak southerly flow remaining over our area Monday with any
stronger southerly flow, and deeper moisture, to our west closer to
the surface low moving on shore. The result is slowly increasing,
mainly diurnal, PoP through the period. Isolated convection
Saturday, and scattered Sunday and Monday, favoring the mountains
and southerly upslope areas each day. Well above normal highs
expected Friday and Saturday, with mid 90s possible outside of the
mountains, then fall as much as 5 degrees Sunday and a couple more
degrees on Monday. Lows remain above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
At KCLT and elsewhere: With high pressure spreading over the area
from the north, expect VFR conditions to continue thru the 00z taf
period at all terminals. Winds will remain light thru the period
and are expected to favor a NLY to NWLY direction tonight and over-
night. They will likely toggle east of north later tomorrow morning
for a few hours and then go vrb for the rest of the day. At KAVL,
winds should weaken and lose their gusts over the next couple of
hours. After that, they will remain light and N to NW for the rest
of the period.

Outlook: Sfc high pressure will remain over the area thru at least
mid-week with little chance for convection and/or flight restrictions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP/JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JPT