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859
FXUS62 KILM 171326
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
926 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure centered just to our north should provide
dry weather and onshore winds for much of the upcoming week.
A tropical disturbance expected to remain to our south could
spread a few showers across the Carolinas Thursday or Friday.
Warming trend forecasted for late week into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
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12Z GSO sounding shows a very moist layer below 700 mb.
Associated cloud cover is working its way southward around a 700
mb ridge centered over the NC Piedmont, and will be the most
significant challenge with todays forecast. This ridge will lift
north today, and flow will become more easterly, and should
allow for some of the drier air over eastern NC to erode the
cloud cover from east to west through the afternoon. No
significant changes to going forecast other than to initialize
sky cover based on morning satellite imagery.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Ridging aloft overhead and elongated surface high east of Cape
Cod extended southwest will keep the region dry today and
tonight. Strong mid-level subsidence will keep any clouds that
develop from moisture in the 800-900mb layer relatively flat.
Some of the guidance is showing some shower development this
afternoon, but given the strength of the subsidence this seems
unlikely. Have noticed a lot of the CAMs have started backing
off on coverage this afternoon. Highs today will be near climo
as the strongest subsidence from the ridging aloft is located
farther north. Even though there will be some subsidence the
easterly low level flow will ensure a healthy marine influence,
despite water temps running about a degree above normal. Should
be enough boundary layer mixing tonight that fog is not an
issue, but moisture under the inversion may lead variably cloudy
skies overnight. The combo of clouds and boundary layer winds
will keep lows above climo.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Strong subsidence associated with deep ridging from the north
will keep the area dry, sunny, and seasonable for the short term
period, with PWATs below normal near 1 inch. High temps near
normal both Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs around 90F inland
and mid 80s across coastal counties with onshore flow and sea
breeze. Low temps Tuesday and Wednesday nights in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main feature of the long term is a mid-upper trough that moves
east to west south of the area Thursday into Friday. Looks like
we may remain dry Thursday before pops increase a bit Friday
with the disturbance. WAA and moisture advection dominates next
weekend between Bermuda high and trough inland, with latest GFS
and CMC keeping a piece of the late week disturbance lingering
nearby into the weekend. Current forecast has increasing temps
and chance pops for next weekend, and ensemble data supports
warming trend late week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR will continue through tonight. Some SCT/BKN clouds, with
bases around 5k ft will linger into mid-morning before mixing
out. Winds from the east again today with speeds around 10 kt
during peak heating. Boundary layer winds and dry low level air
will prevent any fog/low stratus development.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...East-northeast winds this morning will become
more easterly during the day as the elongated ridge axis shifts
west-northwest and a weak sea breeze develops. Gradient will
keep speeds 10-15 kt. Seas will run a little higher than speeds
would suggest due to the prolonged onshore flow and decent
fetch. The easterly wind wave at 6-7 seconds will be dominant.

Tuesday through Friday...Easterly/onshore winds persist Tuesday
through end of the week around high pressure centered to the
northeast. Winds sustained around 10-15 kts, with gusts to 20
kts through Thursday. A trough is forecasted to move either
across or just south of the area around Friday, which will
lighten the winds a bit while increasing thunderstorm chances
over the waters Thursday night and Friday. Seas 3-4 ft Tuesday
increase to 4-5 ft Wednesday through Friday as easterly swell
builds. 6-footers possible late Wednesday through early Friday,
particularly for outer coastal waters near 20nm from shore.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A building easterly swell will maintain
an elevated rip current risk for east and southeast facing
beaches in our area through (at least) the end of the week. A
high risk of rip currents is forecasted for Pender, New Hanover
and Georgetown county beaches, along with Myrtle Beach southward
in Horry, Wednesday through Friday. The south facing beaches of
Brunswick county (east of Ocean Isle) will likely have strong
east to west longshore currents these days due to easterly swell
and winds versus strong rip currents. Breaking wave heights
approach 6 feet at east-facing beaches late Thursday through
early Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...CRM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM