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710
FXUS61 KILN 180800
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
400 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level low pressure system over the southern Appalachians
will slowly migrate to the east today. This system will offer
clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or light rain shower. High
pressure and dry weather will then persist into the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Stacked low pressure over the southern Appalachians to meander
slowly east and weaken today. Cyclonic circulation around this
system will continue to offer clouds thru the morning with a
general decreasing trend as we head into the afternoon -
especially across the west. Can not rule out a sprinkle or very
light rain shower across the far southeast. Any pcpn that does
fall will be very light. Expect warm highs to range from the
near 80 southeast (where clouds will be thickest) to the mid 80s
west (where most sunshine will be observed). Light northeast to
east winds are expected at less than 10 mph.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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Mid level low over the southern Appalachians to open up and
track east overnight into Thursday. Clouds decrease this evening
with skies becoming mostly clear. This will result in more
favorable radiational cooling conditions leading to lows
dipping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. With a light low
level flow and mainly clear skies - some fog development will be
possible.

A vort lobe rotating around the western periphery of mid level
trof and an axis of marginal instability may result in the
threat for a shower or thunderstorm east of ILN/s area Thursday
afternoon. This activity should remain well east of ILN/s area
with partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky conditions. Sunshine will
aid warm temperatures reaching highs in the mid and upper 80s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Period starts under high pressure with dry weather expected to
persist from Thursday night through Sunday. Unsettled weather begins
Sunday night with the arrival of mid level short wave energy and
moisture convergence ahead of a boundary, bringing a chance of
showers and a few thunderstorms to northwestern locations. The
threat for showers and storms spreads across the area Monday and
Tuesday as additional short waves and moisture advection coincide
over the Ohio Valley. Severe weather threat is hard to determine at
this point but any measurable rainfall will notable during our
drought.

Temperatures begin hot with highs around 90 Friday and Saturday.
Potential clouds and precip should help curtail readings a bit for
the rest of the long term, with highs in the mid and upper 80s
Sunday and Monday, and the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level low pressure system centered over the southern
Appalachians will slowly migrate east through the TAF period.
A few light rain showers or sprinkles from a VFR cloud deck
will decrease in coverage early this morning. Any lingering
light showers will be relegated southeast of the TAF/s during
the daylight hours. VFR conditions will prevail with ceilings
scattering out this afternoon and skies clearing this evening.

Some river valley fog will be possible at KLUK tonight. For now
have a mention of MVFR vsby restrictions thru 06Z.

Winds to remain from the east to northeast between 5 and 10
knots.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR