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622
FXUS66 KMFR 220543
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1043 PM PDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...Updated AVIATION discussion...

.DISCUSSION...The forecast is on track for the night. Afternoon
winds are starting to ease and clear skies will continue through
the night for inland areas. Northerly winds are blowing smoke from
the Upper Applegate Fire to the south, so widespread smoke
accumulation is not expected to be an issue tonight. Saturday will
be another warm day, with temperatures east of the Cascades
rising 2 to 5 degrees in most places.

Please see the previous discussion for more details about the
short- and long-term forecast. -TAD

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...
-- Changed Discussion --
Marine stratus has settled over parts of the
Oregon coast, with IFR ceilings at North Bend and LIFR ceilings at
Brookings. Ceilings look to rise to MVFR late Saturday morning, with
some uncertainty on when or if ceilings descend again.

Inland areas will remain VFR through the day with normal increases
in afternoon winds. -TAD
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...Updated 900 PM Friday, June 21, 2024...The thermal
trough pattern will persist through early next week. This will
maintain gusty north winds and steep wind driven seas. Winds will be
strongest south of Pistol River, with hazardous seas expected in
that area overnight. The thermal trough will weaken over the
weekend, but steep seas will persist south of Cape Blanco into early
next week. A weak front will bring a surge of stratus late Saturday
into Sunday with light showers possible mainly across the northern
waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...For areas west of the Cascades, over the next
couple days critical conditions are not expected. This will be
anchored by good humidity recoveries (80% and higher) in valleys and
moderate to good humidity recoveries over upper slopes and ridges
(50-70%) overnight. Afternoon humidities in this area will bottom
out in the mid to upper teens to 20 percent, with these minimum
humidity values trending similar this afternoon to Saturday
afternoon. Some drizzle in the coast range and across
Douglas County Saturday night, will continue to keep concerns low.

East of the Cascades, weather conditions are a bit different, as
brief durations of critical wind & humidity conditions Saturday and
possibly Sunday are possible. These would be in eastern zone 624
between Bly and Lakeview, as well as around Alturas in Modoc County.
This will be caused by a dry front moving through late Saturday into
Sunday. The driest conditions are expected Saturday near 10%, while
the strongest breezes are expected Sunday afternoon, with some areas
gusting to 30 mph.

No lightning is expected over the forecast area through at least
Tuesday.
-Miles


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 212 PM PDT Fri Jun 21 2024/

DISCUSSION...Fairly quiet weather on tap this afternoon through
early Saturday a a weak trough exits the region. Saturday
afternoon and night, low pressure moves into the BC coast from the
north Pacific and troughing digs across the Pacnw. This will send
a marine push into the west side with some light rain or drizzle
for portions of the coast mainly from Coos Bay northward, and
mainly increased cloudiness elsewhere.

With the onshore push, winds will come up across the area
Saturday afternoon, then again Sunday afternoon as the upper
trough remains in the NW and and an increased surface gradient is
in our area. Main concern for this weekend is the wind on the
Little Applegate Fire. See fire discussion below.

Fairly quiet west to southwest flow aloft is on tap thereafter
through late week with another low to progress along 45-50N and
moving into western BC Thursday. This will allow for pops across
the coast and Umpqua to increase to 15 to 25% or light rain
Thursday with temps area-wide down 10 degrees or so. Pops should
decreasing into Friday with temps remaining down. Stavish

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Saturday
     for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$