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044
FXUS62 KMHX 151803
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
203 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Back door cold front interacts with sea breeze to produce
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
along the Crystal Coast. High pressure dominates the rest of
the weekend into next week resulting in dry conditions and above
average temperatures.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 130 PM Saturday...Multiple boundaries at play this
afternoon. A weak cold front has moved offshore of the Crystal
Coast, a sea breeze is currently pinned to the coast, and a NW-
SE oriented back door cold front has crossed the Pamlico Sound.

Daytime heating has built up CAPEs to 1.5kJ/kg along the Crystal
Coast this afternoon, with areas further north and west
struggling to destabilize due to upper level subsidence in the
wake of the cold front. Soundings and mesoanalysis also show
maxima of PWATs of 1.5" along the Crystal coast largely focused
in the lower levels. This gives us a convergence of forcing,
instability, and moisture along the Crystal coast, where there
will be a focus for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the afternoon and early evening. Shear is
relatively weak, with 0-6km shear values at 20 kt, but
impressive DCAPEs of over 1k J/kg indicated short lived showers
and thunderstorms that collapse as quickly as they initiate. One
or two strong storms are possible, though with main forcing
surface based and not much upper support, no severe storms are
expected. PoPs are highest along the Crystal Coast and coastal
Onslow, in the 30-40% range, and taper back quickly north of
this region, to dry for the northern 2/3 of the CWA.

It is quite hot today, with NW`rly to N`rly flow keeping temps
in the 90s all the way to the Crystal Coast. The OBX will be
refreshed by N to NE flow off the cooler waters, and highs only
in the low-mid 80s here, particularly for NOBX where highs
struggle to get above 80.

Some lingering showers possible early this evening, esp Duplin
and Onslow Counties, before drying occurs with deep N`rly flow
overtaking ENC. This will bring drier air to the region, and
pleasant overnight temps are expected with clear skies and light
winds allowing for lows to drop back to the 60-65 range inland,
to upper 60s to near 70 for beaches.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Saturday...Extended period of strong ridging
begins Sunday, keeping us dry, warm, and clear. Highs near 90
inland, low-mid 80s for beaches, but Tds in the 50s and low 60s
will result in more pleasant apparent temperatures. Easterly
flow as the high builds to our north will help push the sea
breeze further inland in the afternoon and evening, but a dry
atmospheric column will inhibit any shower formation along the
sea breeze.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 3 AM Saturday...

Key Points:
- Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week

Sunday night - Tuesday...Strong ridging will build over the
eastern US through mid-week, which will bring several days of
warm, dry weather for ENC. Although temps will still be plenty
warm each day (low 90s coastal plain, mid 80s OBX), onshore
easterly flow will work in our favor to keep us from even hotter
temps.

Wednesday - Friday...There are still notable differences in the long
range models, but the consensus is that an upper level low will
develop east of the Bahamas and move west towards the Gulf of
Mexico. In addition, surface troughing will develop across ENC on
Wednesday and stick around through the end of the work week. PoPs
remain below mentionable until Thursday, however, given the lack of
moisture in the column. Confidence in precipitation for coastal
communities is not high enough to go greater than slight chance at
this time.

This extended period of warm, dry weather will also present
increased fire weather concerns through the week with afternoon
minimum RHs dipping to the mid 30s.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through today/...
As of 1 PM Sat...VFR everywhere except for NOBX and the region
between the Albemarle Sound and Pamlico River as a layer of MVFR
stratocu is moving along behind a back door cold front.
Expectation is for NOBX to remain MVFR through the afternoon
before conditions clear up in the evening. For mainland ENC, as
daytime heating increases the stratocu will likely rise to above
MVFR levels before reaching any TAF terminals. However, added
in a SCT030 deck to TAFs for the next couple hours just in case.
A few SHRA or stray storm may develop this afternoon along the
seabreeze, best chance for OAJ between 18-00Z, but low coverage
prevented me from going more aggressive than VCSH for the TAFs.
Clear skies and light to calm winds tonight as high pressure
builds in. Areas north of the Pamlico River will have the
longest period of calm winds, so if any fog does develop in
swampy areas where moisture is available, it will likely be in
this region. Probabilities are too low at this point for
anything other than an honorable mention.


LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...VFR conditions expected through the
period with high pressure remaining dominant through the period.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 2 PM Saturday...A period of 10-20kt northeasterly winds
behind back door cold front today as it moves through this afternoon.
A few gusts to 25 kt possible with the N`rly surge this
afternoon, though not long enough duration to warrant any SCA
headlines. Seas build to 3-4 ft this afternoon with the N`rly
winds, with some 5 ft sets possible outer central waters later
afternoon into evening. Tonight winds decrease to 10-15kts,
veering throughout the night and becoming ENE`rly for Sunday as
the high pressure builds to our north.


LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Sub-SCA, warm, and dry through the
period.

Monday-Tuesday: E 5-10 kt, 2-4 ft
Wednesday: E 10-15 kt, 2-3 ft (4-5 ft offshore)
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...OJC/RJ
MARINE...OJC/RJ