Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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513 FXUS62 KRAH 130705 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 255 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Surface high pressure over the northern mid-Atlantic will drift east and move off the mid-Atlantic coast this morning. An area of low pressure will move off the east coast of Florida later today and then lift northeast off the mid-Atlantic coast through late Friday. A cold front will then slide southward into the area Friday night and Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 910 PM Wednesday... No major changes to the previous forecast with this evening update. The 00Z upper air analyses show one week s/w over the mid-Atlantic coast and another over the Deep South/TN Valley. The 00Z surface analysis shows high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast and over the WV/western PA, with a weak trough between extending from the Southeast US to the Northeast US along and just east of the Appalachians. While the weather should remain dry tonight, as the s/w to the west progresses eastward toward/into central NC tonight, expect continued broken/overcast high clouds to persist. The continued southeasterly return flow at the surface will keep dewpoint temperatures in the mid 60s across much of the area, making for a humid night as lows tonight should also be in the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... ...This week`s heat and humidity will peak Friday... A shortwave over the lower Tennessee Valley today will cross the area late tonight and move offshore on Thursday while interacting with a disturbance that the NHC is monitoring over Florida, likely producing an area of low pressure well off the Carolina coast. That low is not expected to develop into a tropical system at this time, and is expected to continue to move off to the east-northeast on Thursday, shunting the associated moisture well offshore as well. This will leave Central North Carolina between that area of low pressure to the east and a cold front moving through the Midwest with a ridge of high-pressure extending southwestward from off the mid Atlantic coast across NC. Cirrus associated with the upper level shortwave tonight should gradually clear from west to east on Thursday and result in quite a bit of sunshine again. East-northeasterly flow between the aforementioned surface low and high-pressure should be a little enhanced over coastal areas, but it appears interior NC wont feel much influence and instead see a 5m increase in low level thicknesses and modest mixing. resulting in temperatures 2 to 3 degrees warmer on Thursday and more lower 90s in the southeast CWA. Guidance also suggests enough mixing to keep dewpoints in the lower 60s or even some upper 50s, helping to hold back the higher heat indices for another day. Lows Thursday night will be in the low to mid 60s. Friday continues to look like the hottest day ahead of the approaching cold front with the development of a sharp thermally enhanced lee trough but very little deep moisture to support much convection. If it does develop, the northern portions of the Piedmont appear favored given initiation in the northern Foothills into SW VA and the upper trough cross the Mid-Atlantic States. However the relative warmth aloft looks to limit instability to less than 1000 MLCAPE. The more recent runs of the GFS are notably more active in the evening across the northern Piedmont in northern coastal plain as the frontal convergence shifts through the area. It is hard to imagine no shower at all, but we will maintain a dry forecast overall given less favorable initial instability and diurnal timing. Models indicate low level thicknesses climbing by 10m over Thursday and highs reaching to mid 90s, pushing heat indices into the mid and upper 90s. Lows Friday night will be muggier with the delayed timing of the front, with upper 60s and lower 70s forecast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 251 PM Wednesday... After nwly flow and dry conditions Saturday, anomalous mid-level ridging anchors over the US Sunday through Monday, amplifying into the northeast through mid-week. This will generally encourage warmer than average temperatures and drier conditions. However, diurnal showers/isolated storms (most likely originating over the mountains and trickling into the lower terrain) will be possible mostly in the west each afternoon. As far as temperatures, ensemble probabilities for greater than 90 degrees peak across the NC/SC border both Saturday and Sunday. Thus, it`ll still be hot each day this weekend, reaching the upper 80s/lower 90s (across the south). Under the influence of the anomalous ridge aloft, the warming trend should continue through Wednesday with highs likely reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s again each afternoon. Ensembles are in pretty good agreement mixing dew points out into the lower to mid 60s each day, and thus heat indices generally maximize in the mid to upper 90s each afternoon. Regardless, given the successive days of above normal temperatures, those who are spending significant time outdoors should practice heat safety by hydrating frequently and take breaks in shady areas if possible. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 255 AM Thursday... VFR conditions are generally expected to continue across most of central NC for the 24 hour TAF period as weak high pressure ridges into the region with a drier than average airmass across the region. There may be a few patches of MVFR fog in a few spots this morning, A couple of disturbances aloft will bring some patches of cirrus clouds across the region along with some SCT to BKN daytime stratocumulus clouds with bases of 5-7kft that are apt to develop during the late morning and continue into the afternoon. Mainly light to calm winds early this morning from the southeast to east will increase to between 4 and 8kts during the day and become more southerly to southeasterly with very light winds tonight. Outlook: Generally fair weather with VFR conditions are expected through early next week. A cold front will move through the region late Friday into Saturday and could produce a shower or storm across the north on Friday night, otherwise generally dry weather is e expected. Some patchy late night/early morning fog or stratus is possible across mainly southern and eastern locations into the weekend. -Blaes
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&& .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...BLS LONG TERM...Luchetti AVIATION...Blaes CLIMATE...RAH